Football Bet of the Day: Parana party on the cards

Chaos in Curitiba

Parana v Ponte Preta
Tuesday 01 September, 23:15

A tough one to take in Sweden last night, as we got the two goals we needed, but the wrong way round. Norrby picked up their first win since late July, while Orgryte suffered their first defeat since mid-July.

Scratching our heads a little, we make a foray outside Europe. Parana are up against Ponte Preta in Brazil's Serie B, and Over 2.5 Goals seems overpriced at 2.789/5.

Parana finished sixth in Serie B last term, and the Curitiba-based side have made a solid start to this campaign. They have claimed 11 points from the first six games, and they gave Botafogo a game in a 2-1 defeat in the Copa do Brasil. If we look at their last eight games in all competitions, five of them have featured at least three goals, and they have only managed two clean sheets in that sequence.

Ponte Preta, coached by famed Brazilian full-back Jorginho, have also taken 11 points from six games. They are averaging nearly two goals per game, and are still looking for their first clean sheet of the league season. Four of their six league outings have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land, including the last two on the road.

I know it's not the biggest sample size, but given the way these two have started the campaign, Over 2.5 Goals does look like the value bet here.