Sevilla face Inter Milan in the final of the Europa League and Jake Osgathorpe uses expected goals (xG) to assess the likely winners and the scoreline of final...
"Infogol has this game priced up very closely, making Inter narrow 38% favourites, with Sevilla given a 37% chance of winning the match. That means there is a 62% chance that a Sevilla team who are unbeaten since February (20 games) avoid defeat here too."
Extra time need in UEL final
Sevilla vs Inter Milan
An intriguing Europa League final.
Sevilla are the record holders for most Europa League titles (5), and are looking to maintain their extraordinary stranglehold on the competition.
They knocked out tournament favourites Manchester United in the semi-finals, riding their luck and being extremely clinical in that game, something you need in these knockout games.
Julen Lopetegui's side weathered a United storm at the start of the second half before pouncing with Luuk de Jong's winner, and then controlling the game very well after that (xG: SEV 1.3 - 2.5 MUN).
Over the course of the Europa League campaign, Sevilla have been excellent, averaging 2.0 xGF and 0.9 xGA pg, and have arguably had the tougher of routes to the final compared to their opponents.
As I mentioned on this weeks Football...Only Bettor, I really like Sevilla's adaptability both pre-game and in-game, and that could serve them well here.
Inter Milan are strongly fancied to win the competition, even more so after the dismissed Shakhtar with aplomb, running out 5-0 winners in the semi-final in impressive style.
The scoreline flattered them on the night though, with some clinical finishing to thank for such a comfortable victory, as there wasn't too much between the teams in terms of expected goals (xG: INT 1.5 - 0.7 SHA).
Nonetheless, there is a lot to like about Inter, starting with Romelu Lukaku, who has averaged 1.0 xG/90 in the UEL this season, and will be difficult to contain.
Their underlying process in the competition mirrors Sevilla's (2.0 xGF, 0.9 xGA pg), so we have a really tight contest on paper, meaning the price on Inter is too short.
Infogol has this game priced up very closely, making Inter narrow 38% favourites, with Sevilla given a 37% chance of winning the match. That means there is a 62% chance that a Sevilla team who are unbeaten since February (20 games) avoid defeat here too.
Both teams to score is expected given the attacking talent on show (63%), but we may just see one goal apiece - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ [7.4]
For more information on Infogol, visit infogol.net
Infogol's 19/20 Correct Score P+L
Sevilla vs Inter Milan: Back the 1-1 @ [7.4]