Champions League Betting Tips: Real Madrid offer more value over Liverpool

From some quarters, this Saturday's Champions League final will be pitched as the 'Comeback Kings' versus the 'Mentality Monsters'.

It's a neat hook, denoting Real Madrid's startling ability to overcome adversity in the competition this season while Liverpool's elite mind set is well-known and long admired. Coming so close to winning an unprecedented quadruple and smashing all manner of records in the process is once again testament to their relentless nature.

Yet, adhere to these stereotypes too closely and we quickly come unstuck and that's because one of them simply doesn't hold true. And when we look at the real Madrid, we discover that the 2.4 available for them to lift the trophy in Paris offers up so much value.

Retort to comebacks

Granted, the adventures had by Los Blancos in the Champions League knock-outs were a blast.

Carlo Ancelotti's side were two down to PSG until a 17-minute Karim Benzema hat-trick saw them through. They were ten minutes from going out to Chelsea but prevailed in extra-time. Astonishingly, they needed two goals at the death to stay alive against Manchester City and got them.

Overall, however, it can be said their exploits across three ties were exceptions to the rule in 2021/22 and that's important when their portrayal as 'comeback kings' leads to two negative conclusions.

The first of these is the suspicion that a team can't be any great shakes if they rely on dramatic recoveries. Elite sides don't put themselves regularly in that position.

Secondly, if the La Liga champions are a Champions League version of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's Manchester United that will hardly help them against Liverpool. The Reds have only conceded once beyond the 90th minute in 62 fixtures all campaign and that was a consolation.

Thankfully therefore, from a Spanish perspective, the comeback tag is a misnomer. Real have only gone behind 11 times this term in the league, one time fewer than Liverpool in the Premier League. Furthermore, they have recently got into the habit of scoring early, converting five of their last 20 in La Liga inside the opening 20 minutes.

Momentum

There is additionally momentum to consider.

Having wrapped up a 35th La Liga title at the tail-end of April, Ancelotti has enjoyed the luxury of chopping and changing his starting eleven for the remaining four games, ensuring everyone stays fresh for the big night. Against Real Betis last Friday, he selected ten of his expected side to line-up at the Stade de France, topping up their sharpness.

Injury-free, bar a couple of knocks to peripheral fare, Real Madrid couldn't hope to be in better shape or have had better preparation.

By way of comparison, Liverpool have been busting a gut these past few weeks, straining every sinew and exhausting their admittedly admirable energy reserves to secure a remarkable quad. Winning the FA Cup will have been an enormous fillip, even if it caused injury concerns for Virgil Van Dijk and Mo Salah. Missing out on a title on the final day though, when it appeared perfectly possible late-on, will have impacted the squad for sure. To what extent remains to be seen.

Real averaged 10.1 attempts on goal per game for their quarter-final and semi-final tussles with Chelsea and City. But they're fresher now.

Firepower

Highlighting the considerable attacking threat posed by Benzema and Vinicious Jr is an obvious shout that is obvious for one hundred reasons. This season, the timeless French striker has scored 44 goals and made 15 assists. His 21-year-old partner-in-crime has scored 21 and assisted 20. When combined these are figures that require a double-take and reach treble figures.

Just focusing on Benzema, his career zenith amounts to a direct goal involvement every 68 minutes going all the way back to last August and perhaps it's pertinent that PSG tried to stop him but couldn't and Chelsea tried to stop him but couldn't. Across the semi-final he notched three at City's expense and not even Mo Salah - routinely, City's nemesis - can boast that in a single season.

An available but not 100% fit Van Dijk is going to have his work cut out and that's putting it mildly.

Race against the clock

Between them these conquering sides have played 178 hours of competitive football in 2021/22, amassing 178 league points and reaching three finals, not including this weekend's showpiece event. All that considered, it's pretty incredible that only one guaranteed starter from either side is very likely out and another a concern.

Alas for the Merseysiders, both these stars are integral parts of their midfield with Thiago Alcantara currently in a desperate race to overcome an achilles problem. Fabinho meanwhile should feature but has missed the last three games with a thigh strain.

The Spanish schemer has been huge for the Reds this year, accruing a 90.5% pass completion rate in the Champions League. This is a phenomenal figure given how adventurous his passing range is. As for Fabinho, stats are simply unnecessary to illustrate his importance to Klopp's machine.

Yes, there is back-up in the form of Keita and/or Jones but then you recall Real's vastly experienced midfield three of Casemiro, Kroos and Modric. Then you recall that big finals are typically won and lost in the middle of the park.

Past finals

Having reached 25 finals between them and having lifted the big-eared trophy a staggering 19 times, both Real Madrid and Liverpool are unquestionably European royalty. Factor in their present pedigree and we can certainly rule out nerves stymying performances.

When looking back on these occasions, does it matter that Spanish sides have won four of their five finals against English opposition? Probably not, but it's an omen Liverpool could well do without.

As Kevin Hatchard says, Real should be respected. And at such tempting odds, they should be backed too.