Champions League Final Tips: Liverpool fair favourites but Real must be respected

Kevin Hatchard
23 May 2022
4:30 min read

If Liverpool are to be European champions, they must somehow contain Karim Benzema

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We asked Football Only Bettor host and Liverpool fan Kevin Hatchard to take a look at Saturday's Champions League final in Paris, and he believes 13-time champions Real Madrid pose a genuine threat.

"Vinicius Junior has had the best season of his career, and will look to exploit the space in behind Trent Alexander-Arnold. He caused Liverpool plenty of problems in the Champions League last season." Back Vinicius Junior to score or assist at 2.68/5

Pain gives way to pride in title finale

They say it's the hope that kills you, and that was certainly the case on Sunday afternoon. I was lucky enough to be commentating for talkSPORT's international radio service on Liverpool's dramatic but ultimately futile win over Wolves, and for a big part of that second half, it seemed like I was going to be able to commentate on my club lifting the Premier League trophy (a nomadic existence has seen me lose the accent, but I was born in Liverpool).

My heart pounded with the thrill of it, but then the crushing tidings arrived from the Etihad, news of a three-goal salvo that turned Manchester City from chokers into champions.

The quadruple, the fanciful fantasy that so nearly became a reality, was now a distant dream.

And yet amidst the pain of having come so close, there was a real sense of pride at Anfield. Liverpool had been 14 points adrift of City in January, and there was justifiable talk that the title race was already over. With a positively Herculean effort, Jürgen Klopp's side whittled that down to a single point, and they forced City into a comeback for the ages against Aston Villa. When Pep Guardiola eulogises about Liverpool, he isn't being false or disingenuous. He recognises the scale of what Klopp has achieved, and continues to achieve.

Liverpool will have a parade on Sunday, regardless of what happens in the Champions League final, and so they should. The League Cup and the FA Cup have been secured, which means Klopp has now won the league and both domestic cups since joining in 2015, as well as having delivered the Champions League, the UEFA Super Cup and the Club World Cup. It is perhaps impossible to ever eclipse the legendary Bill Shankly in Liverpool folklore, for a variety of reasons, and I imagine Klopp would say that himself. But the affable, charismatic German in the pantheon of Liverpool legends.

Klopp FA Cup 1280.jpg

European love affair continues

My Dad went all over Europe supporting Liverpool in the 70s and 80s, as the Reds became champions of the continent in Rome (twice), London and Paris. This was the era when the great European nights at Anfield began, and it's the basis of a European tradition that has endured. The Miracle of Istanbul, the "corner taken quickly" against Barcelona, and even that breathless 5-4 win over Alaves in the UEFA Cup final under Gerard Houllier are all dramas played out on a stage that was built by those that fashioned that first set of European triumphs.

Liverpool have now won the Champions League or European Cup six times, a heritage that Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea can only dream of. For all of City's admirable domestic dominance, it is the glory of conquering Europe that they so desperately crave, and it is that stardust that still eludes them.

Liverpool have shone in this tournament. They became the first English side to win all six of their group matches, a section that included the newly-crowned champions of Portugal and Italy, as well as last season's champions of Spain.

Last season's Italian champions Inter were beaten in the last 16, while Benfica were dismissed across two entertaining quarter-final ties. When the Reds were truly tested at Villarreal in the second leg of the semi-final at the Ceramica, they dug deep and found a way to turn the match and the tie in their favour.

The Merseyside giants are in the final for the third time in five seasons, and Klopp has now reached European football's greatest showpiece four times. His Borussia Dortmund suffered a heart-breaking late loss against Bayern Munich in 2013 at Wembley, and Loris Karius' blunders combined with Gareth Bale's brilliance to defeat Klopp's Liverpool in 2018. A year later, having produced the mother of all comebacks to stun Barcelona in the semi-finals, Liverpool overpowered Tottenham 2-0 in Madrid. Klopp has now tasted European glory at the highest level, and so has the bulk of this squad.

LFC Euro champions 1280.jpg

Never count out magnificent Madrid

By nature, I tend towards pessimism as a fan, while my parents are the total opposite. They believe Liverpool will win each and every game, whereas I always sense danger in the opposition. When it comes to Real Madrid, I don't have to look too hard to find those threats. Truly extraordinary comebacks against PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City have propelled Real to this final, and a team that has dragged itself back from the brink on so many occasions isn't to be trifled with.

Real Madrid are looking to become European champions for the 14th time, and the swagger and iron-clad belief that comes with that record has seen them grow tall as opponents have shrunk, with games on the line.

Karim Benzema has been world-class for years, but this has surely been the French forward's greatest season. He has rattled in 15 goals in the UCL, and 27 in La Liga, and when Los Merengues have needed him to deliver, he has obliged every time.

Brazilian wingers Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo have proven to be match-winners domestically and on the continental stage, the midfield triumvirate of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro is still performing at a high level, while David Alaba has settled quickly in central defence after his move from Bayern Munich.

And then there is the avuncular genius of coach Carlo Ancelotti. He has delivered the La Liga title, profiting from the collapses across the city and in Barcelona, and his cool, collaborative management style has reaped rewards. Ancelotti has history with Liverpool - he was wounded by the collapse of his Milan team in 2005 in Istanbul, but gained revenge when the teams met again in the UCL final two years later.

Carlo Ancelotti and Jurgen Klopp.jpg

Paris match could go all the way

Liverpool are fair favourites, given their extraordinary consistency this season and the quality throughout their team, but I'm far less bullish about their chances than a lot of Liverpool fans and pundits seem to be. We shouldn't forget that Real knocked Liverpool out of the Champions League last season - yes, it was an injury-ravaged and demoralised Reds team without fans in the stadium to support them, but it still means that Real won't have any fear.

You can back Real +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.8810/11, so you win if Real win or the final goes to extra time. I think and hope Liverpool will lift that famous trophy, but they might have to do it the hard way.

Benzema is an obvious tip in the To Score market at 2.35/4, but I actually think backing Vinicius Junior To Score or Assist is a better play at 2.68/5. The Brazilian will try to get in behind Trent Alexander-Arnold, and he caused Liverpool all kinds of problems last season. Across La Liga and the UCL, Vinicius has scored 20 goals and set up 16.

Before my parents read this and throttle me for being too glum, I do have a Liverpool selection too. Sadio Mané has been in superb form, scoring in eight of his last 13 games in all competitions. He is a man for the big occasion, as we saw when he led Senegal to AFCON glory, and he scored against Real in the 2018 final. I'll back him to score here at 2.6413/8.

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Back Real Madrid +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.8810/11Back Vinicius Junior to score or assist at 2.68/5Back Sadio Mané to score at 2.6413/8