Thursday's Europa League Tips: Back 4/1 Porto punt plus wins for Celtic & Villa

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• Includes a 4/15.00 Bet Builder in Porto v Rangers, as well as bets for Villa, Forest and Celtic

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Aston Villa v Salzburg

20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 2 & Discovery+

Villa are guaranteed a top eight spot so don't rule out a few changes from Unai Emery here, especially with his side only four points behind Arsenal in their surprise Premier League title challenge. They're still 2/51.40 though with Salzburg mathematically still in with a shout of a play-off spot but not realistically.

Salzburg have no points and just one goal on the road so far in the group stage and even a changed Villa side at home should take care of business.

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Nottingham Forest v Ferencvaros 

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 3

Everything went wrong for Sean Dyce in Braga last time out, with an own goal, penalty miss and red card all going against them in a defeat that cost them the chance to make the top eight. Ferencvaros are seventh and unbeaten but will likely need something to stay there - which isn't expected as 4/15.00 underdogs.

With five draws between them you couldn't rule out another, which may even be enough for the visitors who haven't been involved in too many shootouts as three of their past four have gone under 2.5 goals. Forest have had trouble scoring at home but having faced the fewest shots in the competition this could end up being a bit of a stalemate. 

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Celtic v Utrecht 

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 4

Celtic are hanging on in the final play-off place but luckily enough they host winless Utrecht as they look for the three points that will seal their progress.

Home games for Celtic have seen plenty of goals recently but five of seven for Utrecht have gone under 2.5 goals and with their campaign over they shouldn't pose too much goal threat to Martin O'Neill's side.

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Porto v Rangers

20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports Extra & Discovery+

Rangers have won eight in a row but Danny Rohl may make changes here as they can't qualify so the league is the priority, so this should be a home banker for 2/91.22 Porto, who are ninth and badly need a win to stand a chance of making the top eight.

Samu Aghehowa will be the man they call on to fire them to three points, the 21-year-old is their top scorer and has three goals in his two home Europa League games this term, and I'll pair him up with midfielder Pablo Rosario here in a nice Bet Builder double.

Porto have the second-most yellow cards in the competition and Rosario tops their fouls charts. He's had multiple in five of seven Europa League games and given away six fouls in three home matches - his 11/53.20 for 2+ fouls looks a great price.

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Betis v Feyenoord

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports Extra

Betis occupy that eighth and final automatic spot, but they're only above Porto on goal difference after losing at PAOK last week. They host a Feyenoord side that won last week to keep their slender play-off hopes alive, but they'll need a win here and then help elsewhere to climb into the top 24.

But they've got nothing to lose as 15/44.75 underdogs so it's a potential banana skin for a Betis side that's just lost two in a row. They are strong at home in Seville though where they've scored 2+ goals in 10 of 12, losing just twice, but with the Dutch visitors swinging for the fences they'll likely have to keep up that run to earn the win.

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Genk v Malmo

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ 

Genk are just a point behind Porto in 10th so their fate is not in their own hands, but what they can control is putting away winless Malmo as 1/31.33 favourites at home - although they're winless in four on their own patch.

Three wins in four in Europe shows Genk have momentum in this competition though, with Malmo sadly lacking after four straight defeats and just one goal (an own goal too) while they'd had the fewest shots on target and corners in the league phase so far, so bring the weakest attacking threat you could imagine with them.

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Red Star v Celta Vigo

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Red Star are level on points with Genk but face a tougher task hosting 14th-placed Celta Vigo, who have only an outside chance of making the leap into the top eight but as 2/13.00 shots may as wel give it a go.

Don't expect a thriller though, as Red Star have won four on the spin but they've all been 1-0s and with just six goals scored they're the lowest scorers in the top 30. This could be another scrappy muddling game and if the hosts score first they could well just try and shut up shop again.

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Panathinaikos v Roma

20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports Extra & Discovery+

Roma are in the top eight after four straight wins but with just a one-point cushion they're vulnerable if they slip to an unlikely defeat in Athens. A draw could be enough thanks to their goal difference but it'd mean a nervy eye on results elswhere, so this could turn into a tough stick-or-twist game for them if they don't go ahead early. 

Panathinaikos could make life tricky, but they've just knockout seeding to play for and have won just two of 12 Europa League games at home, including just one of three this season against three sides outside the top 16. They've also scored just three home goals while Roma have conceded just once on the road.

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GA Eagles v Braga

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

One place and one point above Roma, Braga are a lot more comfortable and a lot would have to go wrong for them to drop out of the top eight - starting with an upset defeat in the Netherlands as 8/111.73 favourites.

Go Ahead Eagles did upset Aston Villa here in October but that was very much an outlier and they've lost four straight since and won just one of five home games in Europe, failing to score in three.

Braga, meanwhile, were lucky to keep a clean sheet against Forest in their crucial win last week but that's been their strength as they've kept four clean sheets in six European away days this term and haven't conceded in their past three games in all competitions.

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Lille v Freiburg

20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports Extra & Discovery+ 

So much would have to go against them for third-placed Freiburg to drop out of the top eight it's not really worth talking about, and they'll be more interested to finishing top of the entire table as they're just a point behind Villa and Lyon who are both confirmed qualifiers already.

Lille are 10/111.91 favourites here though as their need is greater down in 21st with just a two-point cushion after a drastic collapse going from winning their first two games to losing four of the next five. They've also currently on a five-game losing skid so asking for them all of a sudden to conjure up a win against a better side may be a tough ask.

A point should realistically be enough for the hosts though and they have got a good recent home record in Europe, so although I think Freiburg are a good price at 29/103.90 they could be forgiven for not going 100% when a point also isn't the worst result in the world for them. So if both sides only really need a draw....

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Lyon v PAOK

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Table toppers Lyon are already guaranteed top eight and are in great form with eight wins in a row and five straight victories at home too, but there's no urgency for them and they may even make changes. PAOK could still technically join them in the automatic spots with a win, albeit with plenty having to go their way elsewhere.

PAOK have already won in France when they put four past Lille, but the competition's second top scorers now face the stingiest defence in Lyon and even at full throttle I'm not sure they're up to the task. I'll back them to score though but in a losing effort.

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Ludogorets v Nice

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Ludogorets will hope to be the big winners on the night as they're just one place outside the play-offs but could clinch a last-gasp spot in the top 24 with a win over Nice and have one of the four sides above them slip-up.

While they'll have to check the scores on qualification, the Bulgarians should get the job done at home - where they've won four points in the last two games, scoring three against both Celta Vigo and PAOK, while Nice have lost three out of three on the road and scored twice. 

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