Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Predictions: How to get England on side at odds of 79/1 on the Betfair Exchange

Jimmy The Punt is touting the Three Lions' first Euro success with Chelsea frontman Romelu Lukaku to top the goalscoring charts
Jimmy says combined England to win with Romelu Lukaku to take home the Golden Boot

Jimmy The Punt returns for Betting.Betfair with five best bets for Euro 2024 from across a range of markets exclusively with the Exchange and SBK.

Betfair are offering customers a chance to earn a free bet each time the side they back to win Euro 2024 (£10 stake) scores a goal during the group stages. Do you opt for a side who is likely to go deep, like France, or, is your faith in a Portugal side who banged in 36 goals in 10 qualifying matches?

Romelu Lukaku is toward the top of the Golden Boot market after finishing the qualifying campaign as the top scorer with 14 goals - that was 64% of Belgium's 22 goals, so could he and the Red Devils be the side to back with the offer in mind?

Perhaps it is an outsider you fancy to surprise us all - like the much fancied Austria, Hungary or Ukraine, and a few goals in their opening three games could well pay you back for your faith in them before the tournament, and hope their big price takes you all the way!

Make sure you opt-in on the Betfair Sportsbook before the opening game and place a £10 bet (or £5 EW) in the Winner market to qualify!

Three (scoring) Lions

England are 1.9010/11 to score ovr 10.5 goals with SBK. This price is a bit of a head stretcher.

The Three Lions are the market leaders to finish as the top goalscorers in the whole tournament at 4.3100/30 but are a shade of odds-on to net 11 goals.

For context, since the Euros extended to include more teams (which means more games are played), 13 has been the exact total of the sides to score the most goals across the two tournaments.

In 2016, finalist France topped the charts and in 2020 semi finalists Spain and winners Italy shared the honours.

The simple fact is, the more games a team plays, the more chances said team has to score making them more likely to score the most goals in the tournament.

As 4.84/1 favourites, England have a 20.8% chance of winning the whole thing so it is safe to assume they also have a strong chance of reaching the final.

All the more reason to fancy Gareth Southgate's side to score a hatful.

Instead of siding with England to score the most though and potentially risking a dead heat, I think taking them to score over 10.5 at 1.9010/11 is a much more appealing bet.

The Three Lions netted 11 times at Euro 2020, 13 in five games at the Qatar World Cup and 10 in Southgate's maiden campaign the 2018 World Cup.

There is a case to be made that their attack is more stacked than ever, boasting the Bundesliga's, La Liga's and the Premier League's best players this term.

Taking this line is obviously less risky and covers us in case England do meet their doom before the final.

Eagles wings clipped

This angle stemmed from Poland's play-off final game with Wales back in March where the winner won a spot at Euro 2024.

Granted the stakes could not have been higher which automatically led to a cagey affair. The match was also played in Cardiff, which had some bearing on the way Poland played but the visitors did not muster a single shot on target in two hours of football before eventually winning on penalties.

I think that performance gives us a great insight to how Michal Probierz will play in Germany.

In a group alongside France, the Netherlands and dark horses Austria, the Eagles will have to defend deep to give themselves a chance.

Playing this way and relying on an ageing Robert Lewendowski to make a nuisance of himself upfront is why I think Poland could be toothless this summer.

That is assuming the frontman will be fit. Polands win over Turkey in their last friendly before the tournament was marred as Lewendowski hobbled off.

Poland netted thrice in Qatar, two via Barcelona's frontman, one of which from the spot but with no easy games this time around I would not be surprised to see them crash out of the tournament without scoring.

Group of death

Don't mess with the group of death. Wise words but I am and why wouldn't you when Spain are a smidge under even money to top Group B. In fact, at 1.981/1, no side on the Exchange is a longer price to top their group.

Spain are alongside defending Champions Italy, Croatia and Albania in Group B.

Although Croatia have not made it past the round of 16 in the last two Euros, they have made the final and the semi's at the last two World Cups and boast a squad stacked with major tournament experience.

Granted, La Roja will have to keep their wits about them when they face Croatia.

I think Italy, on the other hand, are overrated in the betting.

Although highly regarded, Luciano Spalletti has had some teething issues for the national team raising question on if his high octane style is suited to international football. Gli Azzurri limped over the line in qualification and could struggle to defend their crown in Germany.

Spain have been knocked out via penalties in the last two tournaments (semi's and round of 16) but do not let that cloud your judgement.

Das Team

Austria to qualify looks a standout price at 1.774/5 on the Exchange, it is as short as 1.625/8 with some firms.

Crucially for this bet, Austria do not have to finish in the top two of Group D as the four best third placed sides make it through to the round of 16.

The nuances of the draw based on points and goal difference after this go over my head but that is irrelevant for this bet.

In 2013, Northern Ireland and winners Portugal qualified for the knockout stages with three points and a goal difference of zero. Four points also saw Slovakia and the Republic of Ireland qualify. At the last Euros, four points was enough to see Portugal, Czechia and Switzerland through as was three points and -1 goal difference for Ukraine.
So, one win and a tight goal-difference should be enough for the Austrians.

Their draw alongside France and the Netherlands may look brutal but there is a case to be made that it actually suits Ralph Ragnick's style better.

Das Team ran Belgium very close in qualifying, finishing a point behind the Belgians in Group F and nine clear of Sweden.

Ragnick's side thrived without the ball, pressing high, so will no doubt relish their games with possession heavy Holland and Les Bleus.

Daft winner/ Golden Boot combination

As an English man, I think having England as favourites is abhorrent. They are unbackable at 4.84/1. That's my logic although to be fair, Spain (2012) are the only ante post favourites to win a Euros since the turn of the millennium.

That said, as an Englishman, I do want to get them onside, just in case.

I think the best way is backing Jude Bellingham to win the player of the tournament, tipped in my outright, but if you fancy something chunkier, combining the Three Lions first Euros success with Romelu Lukaku to win the Golden Boot could be the punt for you. It is currently trading at 80.0079/1 on the Exchange.

Again, Belgian's frontman was touted to win the Golden Boot in the outright piece and the thinking is simple. He is his nations all time leading goalscorer, netted the most goals of any player in qualification (14) and takes the Red Devils penalties, something which is crucial in the Golden Boot race.

As for England to win the tournament, despite being a mild-mannered, polarising figure, Gareth Southgate has seen steady progression and led the nation to the best spell of recent history. One quarter final, a semi and a final in three tournaments.

The Three Lions boss has also made a habit of taking revenge on sides that have knocked us out of major tournaments as well.

England have beaten Croatia in both games since that semi final defeat. Against the Italians it is two wins, a draw and a loss since the Euros final. France knocked us out of the Qatar World Cup and the likelihood is we will meet them in the semi's...if you catch my drift.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 preview with Alan Shearer

Now read Mark O'Haire's team by team guide with Betfair's free bet offer in mind!

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.