Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Predictions: Back these 9/1, 14/1 & 20/1 punts on the Betfair Exchange

Portugal's talisman Bruno Fernandes is tempting in Player of the Tournament market
Jimmy says back Bruno Fernandes to win Player of the Tournament at Euro 2024

Jimmy The Punt has signed on to Betfair for Euro 2024 and kicks things off with five ante-post bets dipping into the Golden Boot and Player of the Tournament markets in Germany.

Betfair are offering customers a chance to earn a free bet each time the side they back to win Euro 2024 (£10 stake) scores a goal during the group stages. Do you opt for a side who is likely to go deep, like France, or, is your faith in a Portugal side who banged in 36 goals in 10 qualifying matches?

Romelu Lukaku is toward the top of the Golden Boot market after finishing the qualifying campaign as the top scorer with 14 goals - that was 64% of Belgium's 22 goals, so could he and the Red Devils be the side to back with the offer in mind?

Perhaps it is an outsider you fancy to surprise us all - like the much fancied Austria, Hungary or Ukraine, and a few goals in their opening three games could well pay you back for your faith in them before the tournament, and hope their big price takes you all the way!

Make sure you opt-in on the Betfair Sportsbook before the opening game and place a £10 bet (or £5 EW) in the Winner market to qualify!

Steer clear of the Outright

The Outright market looks unsettling. England as 4.1 favourites? No thank you.

It is not pragmatism, since the turn of the millennium only France (2004) and Spain (2012) both at 3.7511/4 have gone off shorter than the Three Lions are this summer.

Across those five tournaments, La Roja were the only ones to lift the trophy as ante-post favourites in 2012. Italy were 12.011/1 in 2020, Portugal were 11.010/1 in 2016, Spain 6.511/2 in 2008 and Greece 81.080/1 in 2004.

Euro 2024 Exchange Outright Odds

  • England 4.1
  • France 5.49/2
  • Germany 6.86/1
  • Portugal 9.28/1
  • Spain 10.09/1
  • Italy 19.018/1
  • Netherlands 21.020/1
  • Belgium 24.023/1

Of the eight favourites, Belgium look the standout price at 24.023/1. Although you do not get each way terms on this market, the gulf in price between the Exchange and sportsbooks is worth considering with Domenico Tedesco's side generally 17.016/1 with other firms.

That said, I am leaving the outright market alone and instead looking at something a little different.

One last dance

I hope this Croatian cycle hasn't ended yet. One more hurrah please.

When did it begin? For me probably the 2008 Euros. Luka Modric was pulling the strings in midfield. The third time they qualified as an independent nation and the second time they reached the quarters. Vatreni scored in the 119th minute of extra time, Turkey equalised in the 122nd minute and then won on penalties.

Croatia didn't qualify for the 2010 World Cup, then went out in the group stage of Euro 2012 and the Brazil World Cup but here is where it gets good. Croatia made the round of 16 in both of the last two Euro's, finished runners up at the 2018 World Cup and third place in Qatar.

  • Quarter finals, Euro 2008
  • DNQ, World Cup 2010
  • Group Stage, Euro 2012
  • Group Stage, World Cup 2014
  • Round of 16, Euro 2016
  • Runners up, World Cup 2018
  • Round of 16, Euro 2020
  • Third place, World Cup 2022

They may have an ageing squad but it is laced with big tournament experience.

Alongside Spain, Italy and Albania, Group B does look daunting but not insurmountable. The Italians limped over the line in qualification raising questions over Luciano Spalletti's high intensity style and if it is suited to international football. It is also worth noting four of the best third placed teams qualify. Priced at 6/42.50 on the Sportsbook, I'll take the 3.02/1 on offer on the Betfair Exchange.

Golden Boot

Before delving into the Golden Boot odds for this summer, it is worth looking at last tournament's top scorers.

Patrik Schick and Cristiano Ronaldo both scored five in 2020. Romelu Lukaku, Harry Kane, Karim Benzema and Emil Forsberg close behind on four.

A top six dominated by the big hitters but when did their goals come and is a deep run into the tournament a necessity for a top goalscorer punt?

Schick scored the majority of his goals in the group stage (3) and Ronaldo netted all of his goals in the group stage.

Ten of the chasing pack's 16 goals came in the group stage as well and 18 of the top six's 26 combined strikes came before the knockouts. Crucially, all of the top six were on spot kicks.

Golden Old'un

The top goalscorer bet blueprint looks to be; easy group, potential to get into the knockouts (but not essential) and the nations penalty taker.

Considering this, Cristiano Ronaldo has to be a runner.

What? The five time Ballon d'Or winner? The all-time leading Champions League scorer? The all-time leading Portugal scorer? The winner of the Euro's with Portugal? The Euro's Golden Boot winner four years ago?

Yes, it may be a bold statement but I think he has a chance of finishing as top goalscorer again this summer.

The ageing frontman netted 10 times in qualification, a tally only Romelu Lukaku trumped (more on him later), and no side scored more than Portugal's 36 goals on route to Germany.

You would have to assume CR7 will resume penalty duty having taken and scored three in qualification which only sweetens the deal.

Not so Rocky Lukaku

You might think getting the frontman of the side that topped the goalscoring charts in qualification is obvious but I have an even simpler punt, at a bigger price as well.

The aforementioned Romelu Lukaku bagged 14 goals for Belgium in eight qualification appearances, four more than anyone else.

That is a goals per 90 average of 2.13 and using that as a foundation, the 21.020/1 about him winning the Golden Boot certainly looks worth a punt.

Lukaku ticks all the boxes; he takes penalties, he is his nations all-time leading scorer and most exciting of all is Belgium's group looks easy, on paper at least.

The Red Devils are ranked 3rd in the world according to FIFA and they face Ukraine (ranked 22nd), Romania (46th) Slovakia (48th).

Lukaku could have Golden Boot wrapped up before the knockouts, and with the current price of 21.020/1 better than the Sportsbook offering of 18/119.00, let us feast on the difference.

Player of the Tournament

I assume the player of the tournament only became a thing in 1996 because the records only go back to that year.

Everyone of the seven winners reached the final at least, six won the tournament.

  • Matthias Sammer (1996, Germany)
  • Zinedine Zidane (2000, France)
  • Theodoros Zagorakis (2004, Greece)
  • Xavi (2008, Spain)
  • Andres Iniesta (2012, Spain)
  • Antoine Griezmann (2016, France)
  • Gianluigi Donnarumma (2020, Italy)

Four were definite midfielders, Antoine Griezmann and Matthias Sammer are debatable but last tournaments winner Gianluigi Donnarumma isn't a midfielder, he's 100% a goalkeeper. Surprisingly, Theodoros Zagorakis was the only captain.

It is not as cut and dry as the top goalscorers but there is a definite theme to the winners, each player encapsulates the spirit of their side as well as being a standout performer, obviously.

Bruno the standout

Bruno Fernandes certainly fits that mould and at 30.029/1, is a price to scoop up the accolade in Germany.

The Portuguese playmarker had a hand in 14 goals in qualification, the second highest total, and is thriving in a central role for his nation. Hard to believe in Qatar, Fenandes was shoehorned into the right hand of a front three.

Like him or loathe him, he is a big game player.

His performance in the FA Cup final for Manchester United is still fresh in my mind. Tireless, the pass for the second goal, no player completed more dribbles (3) or completed more tackles (5) and the tears in the interview at the end certainly won't do his reputation any harm. Okay, he didn't win MOTM at Wembley but you get the gist.

If Portugal top their group at the Euro's they will be on the right side of the draw and avoid England or France until the final (if they top their groups) and could avoid Germany or Spain until the semi finals.

Although we want to promote the Exchange, we cannot hide from the current price on the Betfair Sportsbook of 40/141.00 is much bigger right now. Expect the Exchange to carry the higher price of the two once the liquidity comes, but for now, we of course take the 40s over the 30.029/1 on offer.

Hey Jude

Jude Bellingham is the second favourite in the market.

It is a more patriotic punt but, to be fair, it is a market dominated by Englishmen.

  • Kylian Mbappe 7.206/1
  • Jude Bellingham 10.009/1
  • Harry Kane 11.0010/1
  • Phil Foden 14.0013/1

The Dudley midfielder returns to Germany as a genuine superstar, a galactico.

He has 33 goals and assists in 41 appearances for Real Madrid this season, a league title and potentially a Champions League winners medal.

Bellingham tops Los Blancos charts for goals but also is amongst their frontrunners for assists, tackles and cards. An all-action midfielder.

As for England, although I am reluctant to back them to win the tournament as favourites, you cannot completely ignore what the odds imply. At 2.6413/8 there is a 38% implied probability of the Three Lions making the final and at 4.1 a 24.4% chance of them winning the whole thing.

Assuming they do at least emulate the finish of 2020, the talismanic figure of Bellingham will surely be in with a chance of winning Player of the Tournament.

Now read Andy Schooler's guide to Euro 2024 betting here!

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