Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Tips on Saturday: Back 1.91 best bet in England v Switzerland

England manager Gareth Southgate
Can Gareth Southgate lead England to another major tournament semi-final?

England take on Switzerland in the quarter-finals of EURO 2024 and Mark Stinchcombe is here to talk about the best bet...

England v Switzerland SuperBoost

You can now back Granit Xhaka to commit 1 or more fouls v England at 1/12.00 - Superboosted up from 1/41.25!

The former Arsenal man has comitted six in four games so far at Euro 2024, and is no stranger to the referee as we know from his time in the Premier League.

England (60) have won the most fouls of any side at Euro 2024 (15 per game on average), with both Jude Bellingham (9) and Harry Kane (8) sitting in the top 10 of the most fouls won chart. Indeed, only three players (all 10) have managed more than Bellingham.

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England v Switzerland

England have been much maligned for their performances this tournament, yet somehow find themselves in a European Championship quarter-final. Just one win in four, only four goals scored, just two in the group stages, sees criticism after criticism for Gareth Southgate and his team. And justifiably so. Despite having 59.4% possession, they've had just 11.3 shots per-game, created just 3.7 expected goals and averaged just 3.3 shots-on-target pg. For context, Spain have had 59.8% possession, averaged 20.5 shots pg, created 8.9 expected goals, hitting the target 7.5 times pg, scoring 9 goals.

Having said all that, this is more than reflected in their odds. England are a huge 2.285/4. I say huge, because they were 1.758/11 v Denmark.

How do we put that price into context? Well Germany were 1.674/6 v Denmark. So the market rates Germany slightly better than England. Yet Germany were 1.625/8 v Switzerland. So based on those prices, which all correlate based on long-term data, England should be around 1.75/7. Yet because of a very small sample of four games, England are 2.285/4.

You can push the 1.75/7 out of a bit because of a few performance, but to shift the needle this far is an overreaction. For all the stick Southgate gets, he's taken England deep into multiple tournaments. Looking at those odds v similar opposition:

  • 2022 World Cup R16 1.654/6 v Senegal
  • 2020 EURO Semi-Final 1.84/5 v Denmark
  • 2020 EURO Quarter-Final 1.68/13 v Ukraine
  • 2018 World Cup Quarter-Final 1.910/11 v Sweden
  • 2018 World Cup R16 2.26/5 v Colombia

Over time, England have been consistently odds on. For all the plaudits thrown at the Swiss, their underlying data is fairly ordinary. They have managed just 0.2 shots pg more than England (11.5) and created fewer big chances (8).

For all of England's faults going forward, defensively they've been impressive. They've conceded the 6th fewest shots pg (9.8) and expected goals (3.3), resulting in just two goals conceded. There is arguably more pressure on Switzerland here given they've never reached a major tournament semi-final, losing all four previous times they've made the quarters. No European side has reached the final eight without ever having progressed further more than the Swiss. Throw in the fact that England have won 8 of their last 10 matches against Switzerland in all competitions, losing just once in their last 24 meetings.

England have long been a low margin team under Southagte, often relying on moments of individual brilliance - case in point Jude Bellingham's last minute overhead kick equaliser. According to Transfer Markt, England's squad is the most valuable in the competition at £1.5bn. In-comparison Switzerland's is rated just the 16th most at only £281M.

Football is played on grass not spreadsheets but the point here is with five substitutions, England should have the advantage. Despite only coming on in the 90th minute, £50M Ivan Toney helped setup the winning goal for Harry Kane. Aside from that, after four games of a long season, you have to wonder how much the likes of Fabian Schär, Granit Xhaka, Ricardo Rodríguez, Remo Freuler and Silvan Widmer - all players the wrong side of 30.

Given the odds, we can even back England with a -0.25 handicap at 1.9110/11 knowing that a draw will still us get half our stake back. I'm tempted to say it's the bet of the tournament at the prices.

Now read Opta's England v Switzerland prediction

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.