Euro 2024

Opta Predicts England v Switzerland: Quarter-final value lies with the Swiss

  • Opta
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Opta say back Rice to be carded at 7/2 v Switzerland

After correctly predicting Peter Pekarik to be carded in the Last 16, Will Rook from Opta is back to crunch the numbers and pick out five more best bets for England's quarter-final tie with Switzerland on Saturday.

England v Switzerland SuperBoost

You can now back Granit Xhaka to commit 1 or more fouls v England at 1/1 - Superboosted up from 1/4!

The former Arsenal man has comitted six in four games so far at Euro 2024, and is no stranger to the referee as we know from his time in the Premier League.

England (60) have won the most fouls of any side at Euro 2024 (15 per game on average), with both Jude Bellingham (9) and Harry Kane (8) sitting in the top 10 of the most fouls won chart. Indeed, only three players (all 10) have managed more than Bellingham.

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At the risk of sounding like a broken record, England are once again hoping for an improved performance going into their next match at Euro 2024.

While they squeaked through their 2-1 victory over Slovakia in the round of 16, the match continued a worrying trend of underperformance from some of the most accomplished players at the tournament.

But as always, there are plenty of learnings we can take to inform our bets going forward. So let's get into it.

Slow out of the blocks

One of the few positives about England's early-tournament performances were their fast starts.

They dominated the ball and went ahead inside the opening 18 minutes against both Serbia and Denmark before ultimately dropping off in both. Against Slovakia, the opposite happened with England starting slowly and getting punished.

The Three Lions were outshot four to three prior to their opponents' 25th-minute goal, while their first-half xG came in at 0.25 compared to Slovakia's 0.93.

When half-time did come, it was the first time England had failed to have a shot on target in the first half of a tournament knockout game since losing 2-1 to Argentina in the 1986 World Cup.

Being polite, it was a non-performance.

England v Slovakia momentum.jpeg

So, Switzerland's round-of-16 performance against Italy will have come as a bit of a worry to those of an England persuasion.

Murat Yakin's side completely dominated, while their opponents never got going. Sound familiar?

Switzerland had 11 shots by half-time compared to Italy's one, England's first shot on target against Slovakia, meanwhile, came from Jude Bellingham in the 95th minute.

Switzerland's pass accuracy for the game came in at 91.8%, while their first goal came from a 31-pass move.

Translating that into the betting markets, the value is with Switzerland to be winning at half-time at 100/304.30.

England will need some magic again

One thing you can say about England through the tournament is that they have found a way to bundle through.

That has at times been more through luck than anything else, but they have still made it to the last eight and have the players capable of creating magic. Bellingham's 95th-minute overhead kick to force extra-time was another example of that.

Bellingham has had three shots in the tournament worth a combined total of 0.5xG, yet he has scored from two of them. That means, of the players still active in the tournament, he is the third-biggest xG overperformer.

Jude Bellingham shot graphic Euro 2024.jpeg

Despite being just 21 years old - the only players in the squad younger than him are Adam Wharton and Kobbie Mainoo - he is clearly someone who thrives on taking responsibility to drag his team through games.

His equaliser against Slovakia was his sixth goal for club and country since the start of the 2023/24 season to have come in the 90th minute and beyond.

At 4/15.00 to score, he looks a great value pick. If you would rather hedge, he is also 11/102.11 to have a shot on target.

England's other goalscorer on the day was Harry Kane, who netted his seventh goal in seven tournament knockout matches.

He has attempted seven shots so far at Euro 2024 - more than any other player in the England squad - and has the highest xG per 90 minutes of anyone in the squad to start a match. He is available at [9/5] to score.

Follow the value

But before any England fans get too excited, we have to be sensible with this.

Switzerland's victory over Italy extended their unbeaten run in the European Championship to seven matches, which is their longest in history. That streak is made up of three victories and four draws, including one victory and one defeat on penalties.

Switzerland are available at 8/131.61 to win or draw after 90 minutes, but the value is with them to qualify at 11/82.38. Switzerland to win in extra-time is also available at a generous 13/114.00.

In terms of goalscorers, Dan Ndoye is of interest at 5/16.00. While the Bologna forward has only scored one goal so far at Euro 2024, he has had more shots than any other Switzerland player and generated 1.54 xG with those, which is more than anyone else in the squad.

Interestingly, Ndoye also played down the right-hand side of the pitch against Italy. Given England's troubles at left-back, with Kieran Trippier struggling for performance and Luke Shaw's fitness unknown, there could be opportunities for him to exploit.

Are England losing their discipline?

After back-to-back frustrating games against Slovenia and Slovakia, England's disciplinary record has nosedived.

Their players have been issued with seven yellow cards, with six of those coming in the last two matches. Marc Guehi will be suspended for this match after his second booking of the tournament against Slovakia.

For context, the Three Lions picked up just two bookings at the 2022 World Cup and six at Euro 2020, but have already beaten both of those totals.

Having completed 12 tackles so far in the tournament - four more than any other England player - Declan Rice to be carded is available at 7/24.50.

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more quarter-final tips and prevews!

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