Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Tips: Back 79/1 Mbappe punt on the Betfair Exchange

Kylian Mbappe comes alive in the knockout stages and is a whopping price to bag a hattrick against Portugal
Jimmy says back Kylian Mbappe hattrick vs Portugal at 79/1

With the quarter-finalists decided, Jimmy The Punt has returned to the outright market for some fresh picks ahead of the next batch of Euro 2024 knockout games.

Football Only Bettor Podcast - Listen to Quarter Final tips here!


England v Switzerland SuperBoost

You can now back Granit Xhaka to commit 1 or more fouls v England at 1/12.00 - Superboosted up from 1/41.25!

The former Arsenal man has comitted six in four games so far at Euro 2024, and is no stranger to the referee as we know from his time in the Premier League.

England (60) have won the most fouls of any side at Euro 2024 (15 per game on average), with both Jude Bellingham (9) and Harry Kane (8) sitting in the top 10 of the most fouls won chart. Indeed, only three players (all 10) have managed more than Bellingham.

Christoph Baumgartner's header was clawed to safety by the right paw of Mert Günok in the very last bit of last 16 action to send Turkey through to quarters and Austria packing.

Spain take on Germany and Portugal face France on one side of the draw. England vs Switzerland and Netherlands vs Turkey make up the other side of the draw.

What did we learn for the last round and what can we expect from the quarters?

End of the road for England?

The general consensus was the round of 16 clash with Slovakia was England's chance to kick start their tournament, Alan Shearer thought so but in hindsight maybe we were all hoping rather than expecting.

The Three Lions were awful on Sunday. Once again, Gareth Southgate's sluggish style was easily contained and once they went behind, England could not work out how to get through a stubborn low block.

That was until they went back to their roots. Long throw into the mixer. Flick on. Goal.

Ivan Toney came on, England went more direct and scored two goals in quick succession.

With six days to prepare for their next game, surely Southgate will be tweaking the system and sacrificing some key players for the good of the team. Once again though, it is probably hope, not expectation.

As Stephen Tudor did in his piece, I find myself grabbling between my head and my heart.

Obviously, you should bet with your head but there is always that nagging doubt of untapped potential with England. They are still the tournament favourites afterall. With the Bundesliga, La Liga and Premier League's best players.

This must be offset that with these toothless, tired displays and then consider the opposition, an organised Switzerland.

I would be leaning towards Switzerland's price to qualify at 2.588/5 or revisiting their price of 18.0017/1 in the outright, as suggested before the round of 16.

Fab Ruiz

On Sunday, there was roughly 20 minutes between England's game with Slovakia finishing and Spain vs Georgia beginning.

The quick turnaround made the comparison between two of the current favourites easier to make and all the more sickening.

Although Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal are the stars Luis de la Fuente's wing orientated, direct system, technically gifted midfielders are still the heartbeat of La Roja.

Rodri is perhaps the greatest midfielder currently playing but it is his fellow midfielder Fabian Ruiz's price of 19.50 that interests me in the player of the tournament market.

Ruiz is simultaneously in the running for the Golden Boot and top assistor with two of each.

"He's both scored and assisted in two of his three games at EURO 2024 so far - no player has ever done so in three different games at a single edition of the UEFA European Championship." According to Opta.

If Spain can navigate what promises to be a ding-dong affair with Germany, the midfielder has to be in the running for the accolade.

Mbappe to hit his stride

Roberto Martinez was brought in for his attacking outlook after several years of pragmatism and this could be his undoing against France.

No side has attacked as much as A Seleção (306 attacks) and they rank second for attempts (74).

Martinez has chopped and changed between formations all summer and his confused tactics were almost his undoing against Czechia and Slovenia, two organised sides with a game plan.

Imagine the damage France could do, with tournament specialist Didier Deschamps in charge.

Underwhelming group stages followed by exciting knockout campaigns are often a feature for Les Blues.

In the last three tournaments, France's games have averaged 2.22 goals in nine group games and 3.18 goals in 11 knockout games.

Similar to Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe catches fire in the knockout stages netting eight goals in his last nine knockout appearances which includes three braces in 90 minutes, one of which a hattrick including extra time.

Only two goals off the pace, the French captains price of 15.014/1 in the Golden Boot market is worth a look.

Time is of the essence

Mbappe has not come alight this summer yet, his only come via the spot against Poland. With the frontman averaging 5.02 shots, 2.01 shots on target and 0.85 xG per 90, he has been unfortunate.

Full transparency, his price to net anytime is bigger with some sportsbooks but his price to score a brace is substantially bigger on the Exchange at 16.50, as is the hattrick at 80.079/1.

The hattrick opened at 95.094/1 on the Exchange and 81.0080/1 with some firms but has shortened to 51.050/1 with the same bookies. Time is of the essence and I want to get these bets onside as soon as possible which is why I am touting them now.

Now read Lewis Jones' Quarter-final stat pack!

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