Euro 2024

England Euro 2024 Betting: Will 11/1 Toney or 13/1 Guehi make Southgate's starting XI?

Gareth Southgate, England boss
Southgate caught daydreaming for an injury-free squad

Ste Tudor picks out some possible Euro starters for England from Gareth Southgate's provisional squad as Betfair opens the market...

Gareth Southgate's 33-man provisional squad for Euro 2024 has now been revealed, a generous roster of players that contains a number of surprise inclusions and a couple of mildly surprising omissions.

This large group will meet up ahead of a brace of pre-tournament friendlies - against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iceland - before being whittled down to 26 thereafter.

Looking beyond these fixtures, what intrigues most of course is who is in contention to start versus Serbia on June 16th. And with all of the walking wounded included in that 33, now is the time to get fantastic value in backing the understudies.

Kieran Trippier - 8/111.73

The three players below all have far longer odds yet the Newcastle full-back switching to the left at 8/111.73 is still the best bet of the lot. It feels almost nailed on.

Luke Shaw is the only specialist left-back in the squad but the United defender has been injured since February. Southgate candidly described his inclusion today as a 'long shot'.

Which leaves only Joe Gomez or Trippier to fill in, the latter having done so 12 times previously for the Three Lions.

Moreover, he is one of Southgate's most trusted lieutenants, with the stabilizing experience the manager will crave given the potential upheavals elsewhere.

Marc Guehi - 13/114.00

There are so many uncertainties surrounding the fitness of Harry Maguire and John Stones that it would be entirely remiss not to identify who their main understudy will be in Germany.

That leads us directly to the Crystal Palace stopper who himself has struggled with injury concerns of late.

As we speak, Maguire is expected to feature this weekend in the FA Cup final having reportedly recovered from a muscle complaint. But muscle injuries are complicated. We know this. If a player is rushed back, they can reoccur.

As for Stones, though he has played a full 90 minutes since suffering a hamstring injury on international duty in March, there has subsequently been only a 21 minute cameo.

Given how often Pep Guardiola shuffles his defensive pack, this feels odd.


Southgate himself stated that some of the injuries in-camp are 'nuanced'. What's the betting that Stones was at the forefront of his mind when he said this.

Marc Guehi 13/114.00 has been selected for five of Southgate's six squads post-Qatar and absolutely has his manager's trust. A successful return for the Eagles in their final game acted as reassurance that his knee problem has been overcome and by every metric he heads the queue for the centre-back understudy role.

Between them, Branthwaite, Quansah and Konsa have not played a single minute for the Three Lions in the middle while Lewis Dunk significantly harmed his chances with a terrible showing against Belgium.

Kobbie Mainoo - 3/14.00

The teenager's full international debut against Belgium was described as 'a performance of maturity and quality' by the BBC, while there is no questioning the impact he's made at Old Trafford. Minus his energy and positional nous, United's season would have been considerably worse.

The most persuasive reason to believe that Mainoo has every chance of being selected v Serbia lies in the players omitted, because with Jordan Henderson now joining Kalvin Phillips in the international abyss who else is there who can realistically protect the back four alongside Declan Rice in a double-pivot?

Conor Gallagher, yes. Trent Alexander-Arnold, yes. But both require tweaks to the system elsewhere.

Whereas Mainoo slots straight in, and don't incidentally downplay the possibility of Southgate going with a double-pivot against Serbia's 3-4-2-1. The manager's delighted response to England's 3-1 victory over Italy last October gave the game away in this regard, delighted with the 'legs' and 'physicality' in midfield.

It would be quintessential Southgate to show a tough opening opponent the fullest of respects before allowing more adventure as the group progresses.

Ivan Toney - 11/112.00

With a back problem that worryingly has worsened after exercise, Harry Kane is presently under the care of a private doctor. It's early days yet but this has shades of Beckham's metatarsal in 2002.

Naturally enough, England's record goal-scorer was included in the 33, but will very likely not play a part in the forthcoming friendlies as he's given every chance to recover.

And should his convalescence go right to the wire it's not beyond the realms that Southgate keeps his star man wrapped in cotton wool for England's opener too.

If so, many will expect Ollie Watkins to be called upon ahead of Ivan Toney. After all, the Villa striker posted a highly impressive 32 goal involvements from 37 Premier League outings in 2023/24 while Toney finished his campaign with a goal drought that lasted for 999 minutes.

Crucially though, Watkins is a different type of forward to Kane, with Southgate mentioning in the past that he has to change his team's set-up to accommodate him. Toney is like-for-like.

The England gaffer will have spent months identifying Serbia's weaknesses, with Kane front and centre of his thinking. His reluctance to alter that puts the Brentford man in the frame at 11/112.00.

Combine your selections into a multiple bet!

Who gets in your XI for the opening game? According to the odds, below are the 11 players who will make the teamsheet on June 16th as England take on Serbia, and with Betfair, you can combine your preferred starting XI into a one bet.

If, as expected, the following players are named by Southgate, you can back that at 4/15.00!

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