Greece v Russia: Dzagoev and co to profit as Greeks go for win

Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Live On: BBC

Match Odds
If you want to read about all of the different permutations of Group A's final round of matches, come here.

Suffice it to say in this column that, although Russia will qualify with a draw in this game, there is a big incentive for them to win: if they beat Greece, they will finish top of the group and very probably avoid Germany in the quarter-finals.

For the Greeks, the situation is simple: win and qualify; anything else and it's home time. Fernando Santos' team have not looked very dynamic to date and it is hard to believe that Giorgios Samaras and colleagues will turn into a potent attacking force just because they know it is win or bust. More likely, new cracks will appear in their shaky defence, behind which there will be a reserve keeper, probably Michalis Sifakis.

Opta tell us that Russia are on an unbeaten run of 16 and have a good record against Greece, going W13-D5-L3 in the most recent games. With mobile midfielders to launch their counter-attacks, they are just the team to take advantage of the extra space and Dick Advocaat's men are a decent bet at 1.774/5 to finish Group A with a win.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The last round of the group stage tends to feature the most high-scoring games of European Championships. That's because of situations like this one: a poor team must go all-out for the win against superior opposition.

Going back to Euro 1980, 28/48 final group matches have produced Over 2.5 Goals. That alone suggests 2.0621/20 is not the right price for three goals or more on Saturday night.

Events in Poland so far point us in the same direction. Russia and Greece have both scored and conceded in each of their two games so far. With the onus on the underdogs to attack, two porous defences should come under more pressure than usual.

Both Teams to Score?

The tournament as a whole can be characterised by its moderate defending - all 16 teams have already let in at least one goal - and it is worth noting the prevalence of the 1-1 draw. Five of the first 13 games have finished one apiece.

Although the draw is unacceptable to Greece and only a secondary target for Russia, Over 2.5 Goals does not cover 1-1, so you might prefer to back both teams to score at 1.9520/21. It's a bet that has paid out in 10/12 games at the tournament so far.

Bookings Odds
Jonas Eriksson is in charge for this match. His record in European and international matches suggests he is reluctant to go to his pocket. He has shown a red card in only four of those 28 games and less than one-third of them have reached 9pts and Above in the Bookings Odds market, which suggests it is a lay for Saturday's match.

Best Bet: Back Russia @ 1.774/5 to win
Other Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0621/20

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