Euro 2012 Diary: Mathematicians to work out who qualifies from Groups A and B

I'm not too sure who will be more interested in the final round of group matches in Groups A and B: football fans or mathematicians.

To say things are tight is an understatement. To say they're complicated is a fair statement.

In Group A Russia look almost certain to qualify (they're 1.16). They will qualify if they can avoid defeat against Greece. If they win the match, they win the group (1.3). But they will also qualify if they lose... and the match between the Czech Republic and Poland ends in a draw. But if these two events happen, they will go through as runners-up, with Greece going through as group winners.

Poland will go through (2.28) if they beat the Czech Republic, irrespective of what happens in the other match; anything other than a win and they're out. They will top the group (11.0) if they win and Russia lose.

The Czech Republic will definitely go through (1.95) if they beat Poland. They will also go through if they draw, as long as Russia don't lose to Greece. If they do draw and Russia lose, the score between Greece and Russia will become a factor because after head-to-head record between tied teams, the next deciding factor is the aggregate scoreline between them. The Czech Republic will top the group (7.4) if they win and Russia lose.

Greece need to win to stand any chance. If they win and the other match is a draw the scenario from above comes into play. If they win and Poland win then it will be Greece (5.5) and Poland who will go through. If they win and the Czech Republic win, it will be them and the Czechs going through, with the latter topping the group.

It's not much simpler in Group B. Germany will qualify (1.04) as long as they don't lose to Denmark. They will also qualify if they lose and the match between Portugal and the Netherlands is a draw, or if the Netherlands win. If they lose and Portugal win, it will come down to the scorelines on the day. They will automatically top the group (1.15) if they don't lose, and may yet top the group even if they lose, provided Portugal win.

The Netherlands are out if they don't win. But they're also out if they win and the other match ends a draw, or if Denmark win. For once the Dutch fans will be cheering on the Germans. But they could go through (7.0) if they win and Germany win. Luke Moore thinks that's very conceivable. If that happened, they'd be tied on three points with Portugal and Denmark and the results on the night would decide who joined Germany.

Portugal are through (1.5) if they win, as long as Germany don't lose. If they win and Germany lose then Denmark, Germany and them will be tied on six points. Portugal are also through if they draw, provided Denmark don't win.

Denmark are out if they lose, assuming Portugal don't lose. If they lose and the Netherlands win they might join Germany in going through depending once again on the results on the night. A draw would also see them through (3.85), provided the Netherlands win. But if they draw and Portugal draw, they're out because they lost to Portugal.

I told you the mathematicians would have fun. And I'll tell you who isn't a mathematician: Danny Welbeck.

This is what he had to say about looking likely to keep his place against Sweden, after impressing in the 1-1 draw against France. "I've been put in the position of wearing the number nine shirt for England but it's not something that I'm scared of," he said.

He's actually number 22.