Saturday League One Tips: Go Green and Blue with two Bet Builder picks for weekend

Posh another strong fancy for this Saturday

Peterborough United v Burton Albion
Saturday 8th October, kick-off 15:00

The Posh system is fairly simple these days; avoid them away and back at home, and with Burton in town, and I cannot see anything other than a healthy victory for Grant McCann's side.

A big stat from Opta highlights the task awaiting Dino Maamria's Brewers this weekend, as only Rochdale (12) have lost more away games in the Football League in 2022 than Burton (11), although one of their three such wins this calendar year did come in their last two such games, beating Exeter 2-0 (L1).

The prices here are hardly a shock with Peterborough at 1.51/2 and Burton at 7.06/1, and Posh were practically a giveaway price two weeks ago when I tipped them at 1.9720/21 - and they won easily smashing Port Vale 3-0. If only we could have 4/5 again.

At home, they are excellent with four wins and a loss, but a F12 A1 record makes them excellent Handicap punting material. Those scores are 3-0, 4-0, 3-0 and 2-0, so we can look to the-1 market again to seek out the value which gives us a price of 1.8810/11.

Jonson Clarke-Harris tends to get his goals at home too; and five of his eight this term have been at London Road. He's already looking sound for the Golden Boot in the division and his partnership with Jack Marriott has been one of the bright spots, although the striker is winless in all four of his Football League games against Burton Albion across his career (D1 L3), while he has found the back of the net on just one of those occasions.

However, I am backing him again with the Bet Builder, and playing JCH Anytime Scorer and Peterborough to win which pays 2.427/5 on the Sportsbook. It could be worth also checking out the 2-0 and 3-0 Correct Score bets or even the 4-0 as their xg is supreme at 2.03 on home soil.

KEY OPTA STAT: Only Rochdale (12) have lost more away games in the Football League in 2022 than Burton (11), although one of their three such wins this calendar year did come in their last two such games, beating Exeter 2-0 (L1).

Plymouth can maintain their title charge

Plymouth Argyle v Accrington Stanley
Saturday8th October, kick-off 15:00

Plymouth were menioned as one of my ante-post bets for the season to go up, and they sit top of the table largely thanks to a superb home record thus far; recording a perfect six out of six, ten goals scored and just two conceded.

There's an argument to say they should be shorter than the 1.774/5 on offer, that's a pretty good price for a rampant team.

That idea is backed with the Opta stat; as Plymouth have won each of the last three Football League fixtures between themselves and Accrington Stanley, as many wins as in the previous 13 such games (D5 L5).

John Coleman's Accrington are so often the entertainers at home on Wham territory with plenty of goals for and against, but they are tighter this year on the road with F4 A4 - which are almost Arrigo Sacchi-like numbers for Stanley. The famous Coleman tridente.

Accrington's xg numbers are 1.33 for and 1.43 against this term, but Plymouth's 1.97xg at Home Park is on par with Peterborough's and their 28 point haul so far should be added to. The Greens do have goals from everywhere across the pitch, and they have seen off the big sides at Home Park of late with 2-1 wins against Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday.

The outright win price is fair, and I am going with the 1.774/5, but we can also play on the Win To Nil market or BTTS 'No' angle.

Back Plymouth to beat Accrington @ 1.774/5

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth striker Niall Ennis has scored in all three of his last Football League meetings with Accrington Stanley, while Argyle are unbeaten on all three of those occasions (W2 D1).

Bolton should have little trouble in potential low-scorer

Forest Green Rovers v Bolton Wanderers
Saturday 8th October, kick-off 15:00

The competition to be League One's worst team of the season is reaching fever pitch, as some dreadful teams are down in the bottom three with Burton, Morecambe and Forest Green all struggling. The latter have really disappointed me so far and are without a win in four. I even got a bit of stick on Twitter for tipping the draw against Exeter recently (a game they were well beaten in), although said tweet did overlook the fact I'd picked out three winners elsewhere and a winning Bet Builder. Thanks!

Rovers have an appalling home record with five losses from their six, and they have conceded a massive 14 goals - the worst defensive home record in the division. Ian Burchnall has got to be a man under serious pressure, and his team look far too disjointed at the moment to have any sort of impact on a game.

Bolton have lost just one of their last 11 Football League fixtures with newly promoted sides (W5 D5), with that sole defeat coming away from home in August 2021 against Cambridge (0-1), and that's a strong enough historical stat to use and play the Bolton win here.

Once again, the 1.865/6 price is odds-on, and the old adage of never backing odds-on away from home is a good one, but around the 4/5 mark, it's too attractive to turn down considering Forest Green's poor start to get to grips with football in this division.

It could be fairly turgid this one, as Bolton have only scored three on the road and conceded four and need to bounce back after Tuesday's 1-0 loss at Cheltenham. All five of their away games have been Under 2.5 Goals, but they did beat MK Dons on the road recently 0-2. Striker Dion Charles scored from the spot in that fixture and is 5-11 this term. He is 4/1 to score first on the Sportsbook.

KEY OPTA STAT: Bolton beat Forest Green through an Eoin Doyle strike on their only previous visit in the Football League during a 14-game unbeaten run between January and April 2021; their longest unbeaten run in the league this century.