England

Bet Builder Tips: Back 3/1 shot in England v Iceland with Harry Kane penalty angle

Lewis Jones
07 Jun 2024
3:00 min read

England striker Harry Kane — England's Harry Kane will be on penalty duty

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - unleashes some impressive numbers regarding England's ability to win penalties and conjures up a 3/14.00 Bet Builder for their final warm-up clash with Iceland...

England have won 35 penalties in 94 games under Southgate
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England v Iceland
Friday 7 June
Kick-off 19:45

The thought of playing Iceland naturally brings back some cold memories for England fans. Has there been a lower moment in the history of the national side than that 2-1 defeat at the 2016 Euros? Harry Kane taking corners. Joe Hart fumbling every shot. Jack Wilshere gone at the game. Depressing memories.

The disjointed, rudderless and unorganised side are a million miles away from this top-class England outfit now. Iceland went off 9/110.00 in 2016 to win that match, they are 25/126.00 to win at Wembley. Gareth Southgate's men are 1/141.07 to sign off for Euro 2024 with victory.

Whenever England play, the odds surrounding a penalty being awarded in the match always come to my attention. So, along with the Bet Builder outlined below, I'll certainly be having a stab at the 6/52.20 dangled by the Betfair Sportsbook on a penalty awarded in the match as a confident single selection.

Since Gareth Southgate took the job, England have won an incredible 35 penalties in 94 games. That's a ratio of a penalty being awarded to them of 0.37 per 90 minutes, which is a monster figure when you compare it other nations over the same period. Germany have won just 0.15 per 90 in that timeframe (14 in 92) and Spain 0.21 (19 in 89).

England opened the scoring from a penalty in the win over Bosnia where yet again an opposition were punished for defending too tight at set pieces. It's been a common avenue of success for Southgate's men, who are so dangerous and cause so much panic from set pieces.

Meanwhile, Iceland gave away five penalties in their European qualifying campaign - no team conceded more across Europe qualification. The numbers add up to equating that 6/52.20 being too big for my money, especially with the insurance of having Iceland on your side to win a penalty too. Remember, the penalty doesn't need to be scored, we just need one awarded. It looks a great bet to me and one to follow across England's European Championship campaign when the price is right.

Recommended Bet

Back a penalty to be awarded

SBK6/5

Kane to the fore in Bet Builder play

With England likely to go with a near full-strength team from the start to boost some momentum and chemistry ahead of their Group C opener with Serbia, anyone looking conjure up a bet should be firmly concentrating on pro-England based bets across the attacking and goalscorer markets. I think there could be a statement made on the tournament eve by the ante post favourites.

Prices are heavily skewed towards Southgate's men of course, so it's a tricky task to try and find some legitimate value. Some can be discovered in the England corner markets though, where the 4/51.80 for them to win seven or more corners looks a solid base to work a Bet Builder from.

Only Gibraltar (99), Liechtenstein (91), San Marino (79) conceded more corners in qualifying than Iceland, who shipped 26 combined corners away at Portugal and Slovakia - the top two qualifiers in their group. They are an unashamedly defensive outfit who like to get back into a deep low-block when up against better opposition hence the high corner against counts. England won 11 corners against Bosnia, nine in the second half alone.

Harry Kane looks primed for the Euros after being allowed time for some recuperation at the end of the season and with him being the designated England penalty taker too, I'm keen on adding his anytime goalscorer price at 4/91.44 into the Bet Builder equation. He's bagged in nine of last 10 starts for his country, scoring a total of 11 goals over that period.

Kane's foul drawing ability should also be on your minds heading into the Euros.

Just a quick drawing down of the data and the raw numbers shows that Kane has drawn 44 fouls in 18 major tournaments games, working to an average of 2.44 fouls drawn per 90. His ratio is a lot lower in friendly and qualification games but he has drawn 12 fouls in his last 11 starts for his country so is going along at a ratio of being fouled at least once a game. The 3/101.30 or him to be fouled at least once should land here and can be added to create a 3/14.00 Bet Builder to attack.

Recommended Bet

Back Kane to score, be fouled and England to win seven or more corners

SBK3/1

Now read Lewis Jones' three Euro 2024 tips with the free bet offer in mind!

Follow Lewis' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports

Recommended bets

A penalty to be awarded in England v Iceland @ 6/52.20

Back Kane to score, be fouled and England to win seven or more corners @ 3/14.00

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