Dan Fitch has found a way to give Manchester City's odds a boost against Chelsea without taking too much risk, as he previews the EFL Cup third round tie...
Manchester City 1.511/2 v Chelsea 6.611/2; The Draw 4.84/1
Wednesday 9 November, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football
City take EFL Cup seriously
Manchester City return to action in a competition that they have been hugely successful in over recent seasons.
Starting with their victory over Swansea in the 2014 EFL Cup final, City have won the trophy in six of the last nine seasons. Only last season's winners Liverpool (nine wins) have won this competition more often than Manchester City (eight). While City clearly have bigger targets this season, history confirms them as a club that takes this competition seriously.
Of course, that's an attitude that's easy to take when you have a deep squad and can rotate extensively, while still fielding a strong side. Pep Guardiola will no doubt have one eye on Saturday's match with Brentford, which is City's last outing before the season breaks for the World Cup.
Kyle Walker is injured, while Joao Cancelo is suspended. Further forward, Guardiola must decide whether to unleash Erling Haaland, after the striker came off the bench to score in the 2-1 win over Fulham at the weekend.
Potter feeling the heat in warmest hot-seat
Chelsea face this toughest of cup ties at a time when they really need a morale boosting win.
Graham Potter's team were lacklustre in the 1-0 defeat by Arsenal on Sunday. It was their second successive loss in the Premier League, having been battered 4-1 by Potter's former club Brighton the previous week. In-between they beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 at home in the Champions League, but even that victory saw them have to come from behind.
It doesn't take much for a Chelsea manager to come under pressure and Potter has two very difficult games before the World Cup, with the club travelling to Newcastle in the Premier League this coming weekend. His job is not being made easier by the amount of injuries, with Kepa. Reece James, Ben Chilwell, Wesley Fofana, N'Golo Kante and Carney Chukwuemeka all out.
Haaland doubt raises questions
Manchester City are the 1.511/2 favourites, with the draw at 4.84/1 and Chelsea at 6.611/2.
With City having looked far from infallible this season, their short odds demonstrate how difficult it is to have much faith in this Chelsea team. How much value City are at that price depends somewhat on whether Haaland starts.
With 23 goals in 17 games for his new club, City would seem certain of victory, should he start. It would be not surprise if Guardiola leaves him on the bench again, ready to be called upon if needed, as was the case in the victory over Fulham.
Combining a Manchester City win with under 4.5 goals increases the odds to 1.715/7, while a home win and under 3.5 goals is 2.486/4.
Value for Chelsea players to see yellow
With Manchester City likely to have the vast majority of possession, the odds of Chelsea players to be booked is of interest. Predicting Potter's lineup is tough, as he is prone to changes of formation and personnel at the best of times and this is far from that.
In his last two games he has started with a back four, with Cesar Azpilicueta at right-back. Should the 33-year old continue in the team, then odds of 6.511/2 for him to be booked for a second successive game, look too high.
Marc Cucurella started on the other side of defence and is 4.7515/4. Connor Gallagher earned a yellow having come on against Arsenal in the second-half and is 4.3310/3 to be booked again.