Man City v Al-Hilal Tips: Under 2.5 Goals the play in Orlando

• Man City were the only team to rack up 9pts in the group phase

• Al-Hilal boast some star names on and off the pitch

• Al-Hilal are tight at the back so Under 2.5 goals at [17/10] appeals 

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Man City v Al Hilal
Tuesday 01 July, 02:00
Live on DAZN

City back in the groove 

In some ways, Manchester City's mid-season slump in the 2024/25 season which saw them lose nine times (and draw two others) in 12 games seems like a dream sequence that plot writers introduced to liven up a boring script consisting of relentless victories.

True, the FA Cup final defeat to Crystal Palace was a reminder that something really did malfunction but piece together the end of the last campaign and this Club World Cup and City have won 10 times in the last 12. That's much more like it.

The run includes three wins out of three in this tournament, including a 5-2 drubbing of Juventus last time. The presence of a fit-again Rodri for 66 minutes of that game further fuelled the idea that normality is returning for Pep Guardiola's side.

The markets reflect that notion and with the last 16 matches in play Man City head the betting at 5/23.50 ahead of the giants of PSG, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.

City were the only team to rack up the maximum nine points in the group stage after preceding the victory over Juve with victories against Wydad AC (2-0) and Al-Ain (6-0). Not suprisingly, given those results, they were also the tournament's top scorers across the eight four-team groups.

Al-Hilal no pushovers

Manchester City are hot 2/71.29 favourites to reach the quarter-finals and many will use that as an easy leg of an acca. Al-Hilal,  who finished runner-up in the Saudi Pro League this season, are 7/18.00 and the [Draw 7/2].

It's certainly a lopsided market but not to some of the extreme levels we've seen with City down the years. And there's an obvious reason why: Al-Hilal deserve respect.

They were unbeaten in the group phase, winning one and drawing two. That saw them edge out RB Salzburg in the race to finish runners-up to Real Madrid. Most notable of all, they conceded just a single goal in those three matches and that helped them carve out a 1-1 draw with Madrid in their opening match.

Let's recall that Saudi Arabia beat eventual winners Argentina in the group phase of the last World Cup. And obviously that was with a full team of Saudis that very few knew. Al-Hilal, by contrast, have some very familiar names.

You'll find former City full-back Joao Cancelo in defence alongside ex-Napoli centre-back Kalidou Kouliably while the midfield boasts former Wolves man Ruben Neves and ex-Lazio and Serb schemer Sergej Milinkovic-Savic.

And to complete the star names, fresh from leading Inter to the Champions League final (don't mention that to him, mind), Simone Inzaghi was lured to Saudi Arabia to take charge. Maybe it's no surprise that, under an Italian, they look extremely-well organised. 

Get short of goals

It's easy to think that City have fully hit their stride now after blasting five past Juve. It also helps them that this game is an evening kick-off in the US so the temperatures won't be so oppressive. 

But I'm far from convinced that Pep's men simply stroll through it, easing into a decisive lead before rotating from the bench. 

There isn't an awful lot of evidence for Al-Hilal v elite teams but what there is supports the idea that they could be a tough nut to crack.

As well as holding Madrid to a 1-1 draw in this tournament, under the old format the Saudis only lost 1-0 to Chelsea in the 2021-22 Club World Cup semis. 

Losing striker Aleksandar Mitrovic and captain Salem Al-Dawsari to injury is certainly a blow to their attacking ambitions - the latter scored with a great lob in the final group game against Pachuca - but it may just help the main bet here.

And that bet is going Under 2.5 Goals at an elevated 17/102.70. It's landed in all three of Al-Hilal's games so far and, from a City perspective, no team just waltzes through a competition hitting fives and sixes and this showdown in the Camping World Stadium could be the game where they have to grind it out against a stubborn opponent.

City should prevail but don't be surprised if it's a 1-0/2-0 win or even if the game has to go to extra-time after a low-scoring draw.

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