Millwall vs Hull: Lions to make it to Wembley with win over Tigers

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Monday, 11th May, 20:00
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Lions fail to make the breakthrough at the MKM

Friday night's 0-0 draw turned out to be a fairly drab affair. It was a game in which neither side took many risks, with Alex Neil admitting his team started nervously and only got going in the final 20 minutes. Although Josh Coburn worked tirelessly and held up the ball superbly, his teammates failed to capitalise on his knockdowns.

Hull started brightly, but it was the visitors who finished the strongest with the introductions of Barry Bannan, Luke Cundle, Alfie Doughty and Mihailo Ivanovic all adding some much-needed impetus into the game.

Alex Neil may think about mixing things up for the second leg, with the largely ineffective Thierno Ballo the most likely to make way.

Hull can be reasonably happy with their performance, although they didn't create too many clear-cut chances. Charlie Hughes and John Egan dealt with the muscle of Josh Coburn effectively, and Matt Crooks worked tirelessly. Liam Millar and Joe Gelhardt struggled to get into the game, so Kyle Joseph, whose father is rumoured to be a Millwall supporter, may be drafted in for this Monday night fixture.

Don't expect this game to be decided at the break

Once again, Hull will start as underdogs for this game, and they are priced at 18/54.60 in the 90-minute market. They will not be troubled by the task ahead, having already recorded a 3-1 victory at this ground earlier in the campaign.

They also went to Middlesbrough, Southampton and Wrexham and left with maximum points whilst also managing to hold on for a 0-0 draw at the CBS. Ipswich are the only side to finish in the top six to take maximum points when hosting the men from Humberside.

There have been moments of complete carnage this season, yet they can also produce a defensive masterclass, as demonstrated at the Riverside Stadium, when required.

I don't expect them to hold out for the full 90 minutes, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see them make it to the break and still have every chance in this contest.

With so much at stake, neither side will wish to take too many risks, particularly in the first 45. However, both sides will increasingly look to take chances after the break, and just a single moment of magic could decide this tie.

Millwall matches have often exploded into life after the break, with 63% of the total goals arriving in the second 45. That stat is lower for Hull (54%), but they do tend to score on the road, having only blanked twice since the opening weekend.

Lions to eventually wrestle control of the tie

First legs of Championship play-off semi-finals do tend to be cagey and low-scoring, but Friday's stalemate may be attributed to a similarity of styles between the two teams. Hull and Millwall cannot necessarily be categorised as 'direct', yet they do like to get the ball forward as quickly as possible, and this does not always result in an absorbing 90 minutes.

Nevertheless, Millwall have the ability to mix things up, and with midfield talents such as Casper de Norre and Barry Bannan, they may be able to take control in central areas. Alex Neil may ask his side to put their foot on the ball and act with more composure. Shots and crosses often felt rushed in the first leg at the MKM, and calmer heads may be required.

The hosts also appear to have a greater array of options on the bench, and that could make the difference.

Azeez to ease Millwall into the final

The xG stats tell the story of the first leg with neither side managing to muster more than 0.60. Femi Azeez and Thierno Ballo both managed three efforts for the visitors, although the latter did not land one on target, and may be dropped to the bench on Monday night.

Azeez got one on target and is likely to be Millwall's biggest danger. He enjoyed playing at the Den, scoring eight of his 11 goals here. With Coburn ruffling the feathers of the defence, the 24-year-old could be the beneficiary of his persistence and should be able to pick up any loose balls on the right-hand side of the pitch.

He may also have unfinished business with the Tigers, having been dismissed when the sides met in December. It would also be a great way to put himself in the shop window ahead of a potential summer move.

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