Manchester City v Copenhagen: 11/5 for hosts to run riot

Manchester City v FC Copenhagen
Wednesday 5 October, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3

I've written on these pages before about how Manchester City have ripped up the rulebook when it comes to forming markets but this season they are taking things to new levels.

City and Haaland on fire

When it comes to City, the 3.5 goals line has long looked more like a 2.5 one and now they've added a striker who is going off as short as 2/9 to score a goal and 7/2 for a hat-trick.

When it comes to Erling Haaland, we've already reached peak Messi and Ronaldo territory and with stuttering Danish champions Copenhagen next in the City firing line, it's not hard to see why the layers are insisting on short prices.

Wednesday's visitors to the Etihad Stadium have lost six of 11 so far in their title defence, and also have only one point (and no goals) from their opening two Champions League fixtures.

It's a run which has already cost boss Jess Thorup his job with Jacob Neestrup picking up the reins.

Danish worries

He did manage to get the team back to winning ways at the weekend - AGF being beaten 1-0 - but even that match brought more woe with the experienced midfielder Carlos Zeca picking up a season-ending knee injury.

Their away record is certainly cause for concern - it's now four defeats on the spin, Copenhagen conceding at least two goals in each of those matches.

In short, it's not exactly hard to see City, 1.081/12 to win the game, running up another cricket score here, although the obvious danger for those looking to play short prices is the potential for team changes by Guardiola.

Changes from Pep?

This is the first of three games in seven days and the fixtures look ideal for Guardiola to introduce some sort of rotation policy. After this match, it's Southampton at home in the Premier League before the reverse fixture in the Danish capital next Tuesday.

Still, there's also the theory that you get things done early and then make changes - and that applies to both this game and the group as a whole.

Get ahead early, as City did against Manchester United on Sunday, and the opportunity opens up for mass changes in the second half. In group terms, win the first four and there's a good chance the last two games become dead rubbers.

What we do know is that John Stones and Rodri both missed the weekend derby, while Kyle Walker picked up a knock. It would seem foolish to risk the trio here.

Ruben Dias and Riyad Mahrez were both on the bench for that game and are obvious candidates to return, while Julian Alvarez will be straining at the leash to play instead of Haaland.

However, we've seen before that City are a side capable of delivering goals even after making a few changes and I'm still keen to find an angle to back them against a side whose confidence cannot be high.

Back City to win big

The one I like involves goals.

A look through City's Champions League history shows they've often produced a big home win in the group stage.

In 2018/19, Shakhtar Donetsk were smashed 6-0 and the following season Atalanta took a 5-1 pounding.

There was no big victory in 2020/21 - that was the no-fans season - but last season they were back in business, putting six past RB Leipzig in a 6-3 success.

If they are going to run riot this term, this looks the likely game with Copenhagen clearly the weakest team in a group which also includes Dortmund and Sevilla, a side City have already dismissed 4-0 away.

City to score over 4.5 goals again is at 11/5, while over 5.5 at 9/2 will interest some too.

Sunday's victory was the second time City have hit six in five home games this season, while they've managed four in two of the others so these two bets both make appeal.

Bet Builder options are limited, at least at time of writing, while the aforementioned short prices which surround City also make things difficult.

5/4 Bet Builder option

Yet, we can still make a strong case for one at 5/4 that looks to have a great chance.

City really should win this - they've actually won 19 of their last 21 home Champions League games - while taking them to be ahead at half time too makes sense. They've been at least three clear at the break in three of their four home games this season.

A goal scored in both halves should land (it has in eight of City's 10 games so far) while adding in Kevin de Bruyne for an assist pushes the price to odds-against.

It sounds strange to suggest there's value in this market at 4/7 but that could well be the case.

Haaland is 2/9 to score, something he's done in nine of 10 games, but De Bruyne is available at considerably higher odds despite having landed his bet in eight of 10 this season.

Even is Haaland doesn't play, Alvarez is a player who will find the spaces into which De Bruyne is able to deliver and I can see this four-fold coming in without too much hassle.

Opta fact

Erling Haaland has scored 26 goals in 21 appearances in the UEFA Champions League, scoring every 62 minutes on average, the best rate of any of the 60 players to have scored 20+ goals in the competition.

More Champions League: Tuesday Football Cheat Sheet!