Crvena Zvezda v Man City: Back a Foden masterclass with 9/1 Bet Builder

• Foden to score or assist in Serbia at Evens

• 9/110.00 Bet Builder stands out for Foden to score, assist & post 3+ shots

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Crvena Zvezda v Man City
Wednesday December 13, 17:45
Live on TNT Sport

There are plenty of exciting potential final day plot twists and permutations to get the blood pumping across the Champions League midweek. Not here though.

Pep Guardiola's side have now won their Champions League group for seven successive seasons, cantering into the knockout stages without breaking sweat. They are 2/13.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook to go all the way and defend their Champions League crown.

Meanwhile, Crvena Zvezda hopes of finishing third in the section ended in the last matchday, therefore meaning this will be their final European game of the season.

This is the definition of a dead rubber, especially when you factor in Man City's upcoming schedule of playing six games in the next 18 days including a trip to Saudi Arabia to play two games in the Club World Cup. It's guaranteed City won't be at full throttle for this one. Erling Haaland is out with a foot injury and surely the likes of Rodri, Ruben Dias and Bernardo Silva will be given the night off.

The lack of jeopardy, question marks over motivation and obvious team selection guess work makes this a tricky market to assess from a 1/X/2 perspective - and I'll be staying clear. Man City, who have only won 17 of their last 31 away European matches, are 1.384/11 for victory whilst the Serbian champions can be backed at 9.28/1 for an unlikely home success.

Foden to take centre stage

With Haaland and Jeremy Doku sidelined, the lack of depth in the Man City forward line - just in terms of numbers not quality - makes it hard for Guardiola to rotate in that area. Jack Grealish, Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden all look automatic starters here by default and this could be a great opportunity for all three to improve confidence levels ahead of an important period of the season.

Alvarez is now seven starts without a goal whilst Grealish, despite scoring in back-to-back games, still looks miles away from the player of last season.

Of the trio, Foden is the one in sparkling form - and he's going to carry my money for this fixture in the hope Guardiola allows him to play in a central free role again off Alvarez, like he did at Luton.

He was mesmerising at times in the first half at Kenilworth Road, gliding past players with ease and setting attacks with his intelligent distribution. The Champions League is made for a talent like Foden, who has delivered in this group stage scoring three and registering three assists across his four starts.

In those matches he's averaged a whopping 4.7 shots per 90, including five in the corresponding fixture between these two teams that City won 3-1. Foden's expected goal tally in that clash was 0.87, according to Opta's model - yet he somehow failed to score.

No player has created more 'big chances' than Foden's five in the Champions League group stage either, reinforcing the point that City's maestro is an all-rounder. He's a creator. He's a goal threat.

All this leads to the [Evens] with the Betfair Sportsbook on Foden scoring or registering an assist rating a fair wager to attack. It's a bet that would have landed in all four of his starts in the Champions League this season.

It could also be a shrewd play to focus on Foden's attacking output to dominate this game through the Bet Builder. In anticipation of a Foden masterclass, backing him to score, assist and to hit his usual average of registering three shots results in a 9/110.00 being offered up by the Bet Builder. That'll do nicely.

Read Dan's three best Champions League bets on Wednesday!

Watch Football...Only Bettor - Champions League special

Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, is Sky Sports' resident betting expert - follow his Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.