Australia v South Africa Third ODI Betting: Take on hosts in a chase
Ed Hawkins previews the decider from Hobart early on Sunday and thinks the toss will be the key...
"It means the teams are well-matched. Therefore, despite the win in Adelaide, we don't consider Australia any value whatsoever at odds-on"
Australia v South Africa
Sunday November 11, 02:50
Live on Sky Sports
Australia end bad run
Australia ended their record-breaking losing sequence thanks to a strong bowling performance under lights in Adelaide on Friday morning. They tied the series at 1-1 with a seven-run success which sounds closer than it was.
South Africa had needed 20 off the last over with one wicket in the hutch. Australia had done all the good work previously with the ball after posting only 231. They pegged back South Africa to 68 for four and just when it looked as though they would lose it with Faf Du Plessis and David Miller going well, Pat Cummins, who was terrific, castled the visiting skipper.
From 142 for five Australia were always in charge with such a strong pace attack although it was a surprise to see Marcus Stoinis as top bowler with three wickets. It means that Australia are unlikely to change their XI for the decider.
Their batting remains a major concern after losing their way at 96 for two. Shaun Marsh's return gives them a more solid look, though.
South Africa's batting woes resurface
South Africa will be kicking themselves that they had the series in the bag at the break and with 20 overs to go. But it was not a huge surprise that they struggled to get up.
We have said from the start that their batting is their weakest suit, particularly with JP Duminy and Hashim Amla at home. Frankly, you've got significant problems if Stoinis is running through your middle order.
The sight of Dwaine Pretorius and Dale Steyn at No's 7 and 8 does not fill any punter with confidence and for all the foibles of the top order, this is a significant weakness which, unless remedied, will surely mean a World Cup title challenge is beyond them next year.
Andile Phelukwayo was dropped for Adelaide, which was a surprise. He took three wickets in game one. It is possible he could return. Kagiso Rabada could also be in trouble with the match referee for a send-off. He is on the watch list and could get a ban. Chris Morris stands by.
Solid batting wicket
There have been eight day-night matches at the Bellerive Oval, Hobart. The first of those was in 2011, the last in 2015. There is no toss bias. The first-innings scores in the last five (1-2 denoted match won by side batting first/second) read: 130-2/363-1/331-1/303-2/247-1. The weather forecast is good with no rain expected.
Hosts no fun in a chase
The series has so far been characterised by shaky batting displays. And that should not be a surprise considering the strength of the two bowling attacks.
It means the teams are well-matched. Therefore, despite the win in Adelaide, we don't consider Australia any value whatsoever at odds-on. They are marginal favourites at best because of home advantage but we really don't see a gulf between the two as the odds suggest.
So what's best to bet? Well with both as strong, or as weak, as each other with ball and bat respectively, our edge comes in Australia's shocking record in a chase. It's eight defeats in ten. South Africa are the bet with scoreboard pressure in their favour and Imran Tahir expert at a squeeze.
Home favourites in action
Ben McDermott knows the ground having appeared for Hobart Hurricanes and Tasmania. Likewise D'Arcy Short is a former Hurricane. Those might be factors worth considering when perusing the top Australia runscorer odds. McDermott is an unlikely starter but gets a 6s quote from Betfair Sportsbook, Short is 9/2. Alex Carey is having success in this market with a win in Adelaide and Perth and he is 11/2.
We are not convinced by South Africa's top order so remain keen on Du Plessis for top South Africa honours at 4/1 (Betfair Sportsbook). He was pipped by Miller in Adelaide and the 8/1 looks extremely big after his half-century. Quinton De Kock is the 3/1 favourite.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l
Back South Africa batting first at [2.2] or better (2pts)