Australia v India First T20 Tips: Chasing key in powerhouse battle

• Australia and India two strong teams

• Chase bias may split them
• Batting has been sticky at Manuka

• Four strong win rates for visitors

• Short out for Aussies

Australia v India
Wednesday 29 October, 08.15
TV: Live on TNT

Australia v India First T20 team news

Australia have Josh Inglis available again after overcoming a calf injury and he should slot into a fluid middle-order. Skip Mitch Marsh is in powerful form with the bat while fellow opener Travis Head is in need of a confidence-boosting score. His run of form is beginning to cause concern ahead of the Ashes.

Matt Short has been ruled out after requiring surgery on a cut finger. Ben McDermott has been called up. Josh Philippe is likely to be Short's replacement.

Josh Hazlewood is in the squad for the first two matches of the five-game series so he looks a shoo-in to play. Ben Dwarshuis will miss at least the first three matches with a calf problem. Adam Zampa and Matt Kuhnemann compete for the spinner slot. 

Possible Australia XI: Marsh, Head, Inglis, Philippe, David, Owen, Stoinis, Bartlett, Zampa, Ellis, Hazlewood

India welcome back Jasprit Bumrah as they transition from the spin-heavy XI that won the Asia Cup. Bumrah could be part of a three-man pace attack with Arshdeep Singh and Harshit Rana, who had a big say in winning India a consolation in the final ODI in Sydney.

The main selection debate is likely to focus on who their frontline spinner will be. Kukdeep Yadav or Varun Chakratharty? Kuldeep outbowled Varun in the Asia Cup. Axar Patel will most likely get the spin all-rounder role. Shivam Dube and Rinku Singh compete for the finishing slot. Yas Jaiswal may have to wait his turn at the top of the order. 

Possible India XI: Ahbhishek, Gill, Sky, Samson, Tilak, Reddy, Axar, Rinku/Dube/Harshit, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Arshdeep

Australia v India First T20 pitch report

The Manuka Oval at Canberra hosts a night match and punters need to be aware of a significant toss bias. Of the 27 results, 19 have been won by the chaser. That's a hefty 70% bias. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly we don't expect big runs on past records. During that study sample, 165 or more in first-innings has been busted just seven times. That immediately makes selling the highest total match runs line as an option. India's 175.5 would be a trend buster if it didn't win at 5/61.84. As a further comfort rug the quote is some way over their average match total of 164 in the last ten, home and away. 

Australia v India First T20 match prediction

This is a rare and good, old-fashioned pick 'em affair in T20. The match odds market can barely split the pair with Australia not making favourite status at 2.0621/20 and India 1.9310/11.

Both Australia and India are powerful units in this format. But India may well be the right choice in terms of form as jollies. They're crushing everyone and have a settled group. The churn for the Aussies might make a difference. 

Thankfully the toss bias plays a major role in deciding how to bet. And given the reliability of both there is nowt wrong with betting blind on the toss. If you want to be cut you could take a bigger chunk in-play, particularly in the first powerplay.

Australia v India Firs T20 ODI player bets

There are four win-rate options in terms of players to follow. And all of them are India. With the bat, Abhishek Sharma, the opener, has 29% returns from the last 24 (matches post last World Cup). Sportsbook offer 10/34.33. His main rival appears to be Tilak Varma in terms of value with a 25% hit rate from 16. Tilak is 4/15.00. 

With the ball, Kuldeep has five wins in the last eight top India wicket-taker market. So it's short-term versus Varun's long-term 29% (24 matches); Both are 3/14.00.

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes