Pakistan v Australia 1st ODI Tips: Pakistan the value in-play in a chase

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Saturday 30 May, 12.30
TV: PCBLive

Pakistan v Australia 1st ODI team news

Pakistan lost a three-match ODI series to Bangladesh in March so, unsurprisingly, there have been changes. The most notable is the return of Babar Azam and the omission of Mohammad Rizwan.

Pacer Naseem Shah is back while all-rounder Shadab Khan is also in favour again. Wicketkeeper-batter Rohail Nazir, left-arm spinner Arafat Minhas, and fast bowler Ahmed Daniyal are uncapped.

Also axed from the Bangladesh series are Faisal Akram, Faheem Ashraf, Hussain Talat, Mohammad Wasim Jnr and Saad Masood. There's no Fakhar Zaman, Usman Khan or Saim Ayub in the squad, either, although this is reported to be due to illness and injury.

That's a lot of batting ability to lose and one suspects they will be hugely vulnerable if that top four doesn't fire with a big partnership.

Possible XI: Farhan, Sadaqat, Babar, Salman, Samad, Ghouri, Shadab, Afridi, Naseem, Rauf, Abrar

This is a reserve Australia team. As one would expect there is no Josh Hazlewood, Mitch Starc, and Pat Cummins. Travis Head, Xavier Bartlkett and Ben Dwarshuis have also been rested post IPL.

Mitch Marsh was due to lead but his ankle injury means Josh Inglis is out in charge, Marsh's place goes to Cooper Connolly but he won't be available for game one.

The key, experienced players could be Marnus Labuschagne and Adam Zampa. Labuschagne had a superb PSL, turning around Hyderabad's fortunes. Zampa's class will be crucial in holding an end. Which version of Cameron Green turns up is anyone's guess although it's a surprise his workload has not been managed.

Liam Scott, of the Strikers, may make a debut as an all-rounder. 19-year-old batter Ollie Peake could also play at some stage.

Possible XI: Short, Carey, Inglis, Labuschagne, Green, Renshaw, Scott, Ellis, Zampa, Meredith, Tanveer

Pakistan v Australia 1st ODI pitch report

There have been six day-night matches at Rawalpindi in the last five years. Five of those have been won by the team batting second with dew a significant factor. The toss, therefore, is crucial.

The game has been scheduled for a day-night due to the extreme heat and although there have been thunderstorms in the area, batting second is advised. Gripping the ball in the second innings is likely to be tricky for the side defending a total.

Run rates in the study period have been 5.70. More than 300 has been busted once. The total runs quotes from Sportsbook may, however, be on the generous side for overs players. One would expect Pakistan to be more reliable and their quote is set at 262.5 to go over at 10/111.91.

That has won in four of the last five for the hosts. The first-innings total under that mark has been recorded twice in the six. Australia's line is cheaper at 254.5.

The lines are most heavily influenced by the last ODI there in November 2025 when Sri Lanka could post only 211. Pakistan won with more than five overs to spare.

Pakistan v Australia 1st ODI match prediction

Pakistan are 4/51.80 with Sportsbook and Australia are 1/12.00. We cannot possibly bet until the flip, however, with a major advantage for the team batting second.

We would expect those odds to hold, regardless of the coin toss. It is rare indeed for a market to react to a toss bias.

There is, however, a golden rule at play: don't bet Pakistan at odds-on. Patience is the watch word, then, if Pakistan bowl first. We would need to wait not just until the flip of the coin but the flip of the odds. Look for even money Pakistan in-play.

Pakistan v Australia 1st ODI player bets

Babar Azam is 23/103.30 for Pakistan's top runscorer. He made 34 in that Sri Lanka game but an unbeaten 102 in the previous match in the same series at the venue. He also has a 65 and 49 in that study period. There is likely to be little to perturb Babar from Australia's attack which, although skilled, doesn't boast extreme pace. Babar, like most, is vulnerable if hurried.  

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