Pakistan v Australia 2nd ODI Tips: Aussies may improve after first game flop but Babar is unbeatable

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Tuesday 2 June, 12.30
TV: PCBLive

Pakistan v Australia 2nd ODI team news

Pakistan have a 1-0 lead after a dominant display in Rawalpindi. They restricted Australia to 200 all out and then knocked off the runs with five wickets and more than seven overs to spare.

Spin was key. Arafat Minhas took five wickets, Abrar Ahmed two and Salman Agha one. The blueprint for success is clear and that may inform selection again with a winning team unlikely to be changed. There is potential for Naseem Shah to replace spinner Shadab Khan, though, if Pakistan feel the pitch will aid pacers.

Shadab came back into the side after a three-year absence and would have been bitterly disappointed at retuning no wickets for 54 off eight. It was rather exposing so it will be interesting to see how much patience he is afforded.

Probable XI: Farhan, Sadaqat, Babar, Ghouri, Salman, Minhas, Samad, Shadab, Afridi, Rauf, Abrar

Australia have picked a reserve team for this series and they were forced to double down on the experimental feel by leaving out their best bowler, Adam Zampa, who had a neck issue. How they could have done with Zampa in Rawalpindi. Instead they went with Tanveer Sangha. He was tidy with one for 31 but Zampa's guile in such a small chase would have been beneficial.

More changes are expected. If Zampa is fit he should come in for Tanveer. Matt Kuhnemann should retain his position after bowling nicely. Cooper Connolly should also now be available after arriving later than the rest of the squad post IPL. Oliver Peake, the 19-year-old who debuted at No 7, may miss out.

Riley Meredith might get in ahead of the expensive Billy Stanlake as Australia look to rotate pace options,

Possible XI: Short, Carey, Inglis, Labuschagne, Green, Connolly, Renshaw, Kuhnemann, Ellis, Zampa, Meredith,

Pakistan v Australia 2nd ODI pitch report

There have been seven day-night matches at Lahore in the last three years which have produced results. Five of those have been won by the side batting first. That suggests dew is not a problem. Does the trend hold up over a longer study period? Not so much but it is six from ten which hints at an issue for the chaser.

The runs per over over those ten games is 6.2. New Zealand smashed 362 against South Africa there in the Champions Trophy in March. It was a high-scoring ground in that tournament with 320 or more busted in four of the five contests.

That immediately brings into focus a cheap total runs line for Australia at overs 266.5 at [10/11]. If there can be a bit more zip in the pitch their batters will fancy posting above that, which would still be below par. It really shouldn't be beyond the top five to get them over the line.

Pakistan v Australia 2nd ODI match prediction

Pakistan are [8/13] with the Betfair Sportsbook for the series win. That is mighty short and challenges one of gambling's oldest rules: avoid this lot at odds-on. And significantly odds-on at that.

If we were taking that price we would want the toss bias to be in our favour and clear evidence that the wicket will be conducive to spin. At this stage we have no evidence of the latter.

So could Australia be the value at 5/42.25? As stated, the batting should be competitive and it is certainly no bad thing to add Connolly to the ranks. The likes of Matt Short, Josh Inglis and Marnus Labuschagne do need to step up. They are far too talented to be on the fringes for as long as they have. Someone, surely, has to put their hand up with a big performance.

But if we're talking up the batting then we can filter out the variables. And that brings us back to the Australia runs price. Yes, we think Australia have a good chance of runs. But we don't have to worry about what the Australia bowlers do. or how they counter Babar Azam.

Taking the Sportsbook runs quote is, therefore, the smartest way to be with Australia. A more convuluted option if Pakistan are the team for you is the 7/42.75 that they win and both teams bust 250.

Pakistan v Australia 2nd ODI player bets

Babar Azam top scored for Pakistan in game one as suggested on our match preview. We don't often like to go in for back-to-back wins on that market but there is certainly evidence that Babar, the best batter on either side, has a solid chance of runs. For a start he hit a majestic 114 against the likes of Nathan Ellis, Cameron Green and Adam Zampa on this ground in 2022. A game earlier in that series he made 57 and in the final match of the series (both in Lahore), he hit an unbeaten 105. The 4/15.00 that he notches another ton here could be the play.

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