Australia v India Fifth T20 Tips: India to outsmart Aussies again

• India 2-1 up with one to play

• Hosts unsure after team changes
• Gabba surface fair for bat & ball

• Tilak vulnerable to axe

• Dwarshuis a top bowler bet

Australia v India
Saturday 8 November, 08.15
TV: Live on TNT

Australia v India Fifth T20 team news

Australia are 2-1 down with one to play but the portents don't look good after a concerning batting display in Carrara. India's spinners ripped through their line-up defending 168.

They lost six wickets to tweak and it could be that an unsettled XI had something to do with it.  There has been chopping and changing aplenty for Australia in this series and although we don't expect any more for game five, an example was Matt Short batting in the lower order being suddenly asked to return to the opener slot in the absence of Travis Head. Josh Philippe was also thrust back in after not playing since game one.

One possible tweak is leaving out Ashes squad member Josh Inglis for Mitch Owen. Adam Zampa came in for spinner Matt Kuhnemann.

Probable Australia XI: Marsh, Short, Inglis, David, Philippe, Stoinis, Maxwell, Dwarshuis, Bartlett, Ellis, Zampa

India were too strong with the ball but the batters failed to fire again despite promising platforms. One can tell they are concerned after a shuffle in the order. Shivam Dube was promoted to No 3 and Tilak Varma demoted to No 5. That could give a clue to a change.

Tilak may be considered vulnerable now with Rinku Singh waiting for his chance. Jitesh Sharma may also feel vulnerable to Sanju Samson, who would be more suited to batting first down if India feel they have an issue there.

Possible India XI: Ahbhishek, Gill, Samson, Sky, Rinku, Axar, Dube, Sundar, Arshdeep, Varun, Bumrah

Australia v India Fifth T20 pitch report

There have been ten night games at The Gabba in the last two years with a 50-50 split on the toss and a runs per over mark of 8.6. Only one of those was a T20i when Australia beat Pakistan in a seven-over thrash.  If we extend the study to a further year and 14 games we get the RPO ticking up to 8.7. 

With an expected par line on the Exchange at more than 175, we note that mark has been busted in just four of 13 games (ignoring the reduced-over contest). Heat and Hurricanes did notch a winner for both teams to score 200 in the most recent contest, though. Sportsbook go under/over Australia runs at 168.5, a tempter for sellers given their performance against spin. 

It does seem as though this is a fair contest between bat and ball, though. There is the possibility of some rain around but it doesn't appear to be heavy at this stage.

Australia v India Fifth T20 match prediction

Australia are 2.166/5 with India 1.845/6 for a must-win contest. Those are pretty much a repeat of the odds from game four. Before that contest these pages declared India would go on to take the series and that view hasn't changed.

There is an argument that India should, in fact, be a little skinnier. Throughout the series they have been considered the better side and now in the midst of flexing their muscles, the market might be a little slow to react.

Issues against spin for the Aussies is a historic problem and adds to their insecurities. With so many changes in the team - they have now used 16 players in the series - batters and bowlers unsurprisingly have not had time to adjust to their roles or had the time to put in place detailed plans. India for a 3-1 win.

Australia v India Fifth T20 ODI player bets

Inglis, Tim David and Marcus Stoinis have all had decent hits at The Gabba in our study period but the 4/15.00 and 7/24.50 about the first two don't scream value. Stoinis might be worth a shout at 10s but there's probably not enough science here to get excited about. For India Tilak Varma is in the win zone but the demotion in batting order is far from ideal at 9/25.50.

Instead we keep faith with Ben Dwarshuis for top Aussie wicket-taker at 7/24.50. he has five wins from nine now and has liked the surface in the past. In that study period he has five wickets in two games with a strike rate of 9.6. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes