Pakistan v Australia 3rd ODI Tips: Toss bias keeps Aussies keen

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Thursday 4 June, 12.30
TV: PCBLive

Pakistan v Australia 3rd ODI team news

Pakistan have been pegged back to 1-1 after a poor batting display in game two in Lahore. The series was in their pocket after restricting Australia to 231. But their top order was blown away.

At 78 for six the game looked up. Arafat Minhas and Shadab Khan gave them hope but when they were split on 137 defeat was inevitable. Shadab made 71 in an important reminder of his ability but there will be concern that he has twice looked impotent with the ball.

Maaz Sadaqat could come under pressure in the opening role with 21-year-old Shamyl Hussain an option. With the ball Naseem Shah could come in for Haris Rauf. If Pakistan want more spin options given Shadab;s struggles, they could move sacrifice Sadaqat for Sufyan Moqim's left-arm wrist spin. That may see Babar Azam open the batting.

Possible XI: Farhan, Sadaqat, Babar, Ghouri, Salman, Minhas, Samad, Shadab, Afridi, Naseem, Abrar

Australia were able to deploy the fit-again Adam Zampa for the second match but it was part-time spinner Matt Short who won them the match with three wickets. Nathan Ellis mopped up the tail to take four.

Despite the series-levelling win, Australia could still make changes as they look to experiment and give players experience. Oliver Peake, therefore, may come out for all-rounder Liam Scott. Peake has not disgraced himself and had a nice cameo with the bat. Scott would be another debutant. It's possible Peake is retained with Tanveer Sangha making way given Short's bowling. Don't be surprised to see Marnus Labuschagne get a decent bowl.

Cooper Connolly is available after arriving late post IPL. Connolly would be another useful pace-off option. He could come in for Cameron Green with the Aussies keeping an eye on his workload.

Possible XI: Short, Carey, Inglis, Labuschagne, Connolly, Renshaw, Peake, Scott, Kuhnemann, Ellis, Zampa

Pakistan v Australia 3rd ODI pitch report

There have now been eight day-night matches at Lahore in the last three years which have produced results. Six of those have been won by the side batting first. That sis a trend which we have to respect given that Australia managed to defend 231.

Lahore has also been good for runs. But it does appear that Pakistan ordered a wicket which took spin. Australia lost four to spin and Pakistan six. We have to consider switching from expecting a more turgid surface despite the historical trends for easier batting.

The markets agree. Sportsbook have reduced Australia's total runs to over/under 254.5. Pakistan's is available at 263.5. That higher line could well be the short as it also keeps on side a potential Australia collapse. Don't forget they lost eight wickets to spin in Rawalpindi.

Pakistan v Australia 3rd ODI match prediction

For both of the matches this series we have repeated the golden rule of cricket betting. And that is not to trust Pakistan at odds-on. Backing them at such prohibitive odds (Sportsbook go 8/131.61) would be particularly unwise given the presence of the toss bias.

We, of course, can't guarantee who bats or bowls first at this stage so planning to bet in-play is the advice. On a surface which could deteriorate and with the chaser having had historic struggles, backing the team batting first makes sense.

If it's Pakistan the strategy is to wait until they hit 2.01/1 or bigger on the Exchange. That is not unlikely given Australia have twice managed to split the opening pair quickly. if it's Australia do bear in mind that they are prone to collapse after a partnership. the middle- to lower-order could be vulnerable so in-play it may pay to consider a back-to-lay. adding 50% to your original stake on the lay button if they hit 1.705/7 from 2.206/5 is an option for all green.

Pakistan v Australia 3rd ODI player bets

With Short a surprise wicket-taker, the part-time spinner and full-time batter role could prove to be a route to profit. Labuschagne could fit the bill nicely. Sportsbook offer 5/61.84 that he goes over 26.5 performance points with one point per run, 10 per catch and 20 per wicket. He came on in the first ODI and needed only nine balls to pick up a leg before.

Labuschagne would have been worth an interest for top bowler but he has not been listed. Short, though, at 13/27.50 should probably be skinnier off the back of three.

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