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Labsuchagne hard to stop
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Technical worries for Aussie batters
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Smith may be lbw candidate
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Lyon most likely to play all five
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- Read Ed's Ultimate Guide to the Ashes
The Ashes
From 21 November, 00:15
TV: Live on TNT
In a hugely-anticapted and likely keenly-fought Ashes series, this is possibly one of the eaisest outcomes to call. While it is possible for punters to tie themselves in knots about who wins the series and by what margin, there is a standout wager to be had for most Australia series runs.
Marnus Labuschagne is the third favourite to notch at an appealing 5/16.00. He comes into the series in a rare sequence of form at a time when there are worries about the Australia top order.
Labuschagne, reassuringly obsessive for his supporters about how to occupy the crease, pitched his tent several weeks ago and has barely budged since. In Australia domestic cricket this summer he has batted eight times, recording centuries five times. The tons have come in three List A matches but the highlights were in the Sheffield Shield; the 159 for Queensland against South Australia and 160 against Tasmania.
It is a welcome return to form for Labuschagne, who was dropped for Australia's tour of West Indies earlier this year. Selectors, and perhaps team-mates, might have grown tired with Labuschagne's idiosyncratic ways. His chirping, twitching and ticking was all fine when he looked like breaking into the top echelon of the elite, not so much when failing to land a ton for two years.
But he is back now and looks more like the player who has won two of the last seven top Australia series bat lists in home Tests. His main rivals for the win are Steve Smith at 15/82.88 and Travis Head at 7/24.50.
Smith is, of course, the correct favourite. But it's hard to argue he is a wrong price. He has one win in that seven-series sequence. He has also tuned up with runs domestically but the suspicion has been that one of the greats of the game is beginning to decline. He looks like a walking lbw candidate for a start. In the past England had no clue how to get him out.
Head is in a fallow period. He has three half-centuries in his last 16 and has looked worryingly out of sorts in white-ball for Australia. Usman Khawaja is 11/26.50 but a lack of foot movement and signs of a significant dip in form rule him out. In short, there's not much for labuschagne to beat.
Back Marnus Labuschagne top Australia series bat
The absence of Pat Cummins from at least one Test blows open the top Australia series wicket-taker market. It looks like being a three-horse race with Cummins fighting to return to fitness following a nasty back injury.
Cummins is quietly confident that he will be ready for game two, which starts in Brisbane under lights on 4 December but he has questioned his ability to go back-to-back which may mean one of the Boxing Day or New Year's Tests sat the MCGand SCG respectively sees him miss out.
That rules out an extraordinarily high-quality pacer as a bet, even at an inflated 8/19.00 when he would have gone off as favourite. It would be a major surprise if the market was not won by Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood or Nathan Lyon. Scott Boland is admirable and has a fabulous record but if Cummins is fit he doesn't play.
Lyon looks to be the wisest option. He will most likely bowl the most overs in the series, even across both teams. And it's no secret as to the reason why he has taken most wickets for Australia since the last series Down Under. He has 163 wickets to next-best Starc on 147.
The 13/53.60 about Lyon is a bet, particularly as we would be more confident about his body holding up better than Starc and Hazlewood, who will have to go to the well to play all five.
Back Nathan Lyon top Australia series bowler
Sticking with Labuschagne, Sportsbook have priced up key players to score a century in this series so immediately the price for our man to score more than two jumps out. The 3/14.00 available is a good alternative to the top series bet as it means one doesn't have to worry about other batters. At least two tons would be required to win the market one would have thought.
Having discussed worries over Head and Khawaja, betting them respectively to fail to reach three figures at 5/61.84 the pair may appeal. Smith is 15/82.88 to score two tons or more.
It would be remiss not to point out that Lyon is also value for top overall Ashes bowler at 11/26.50. Lyon is 14/115.00 to be named player of the series and Labuschagne 12s.