Hawk Eye on Australia v India Third Test: Starc v Cummins for top bowler

Ed Hawkins
23 December 2018

Cummins is underrated

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Ed Hawkins analyses Australia's home attack and the chances of Ravi Ashwin overperforming at the MCG from Boxing Day

"Hazlewood is too short but it is Cummins who could be considered the real value. We rate him at closer to 11/8"

Where's the value for top Aussie bowler?

By the time the Melbourne Test rolls around, Mitchell Starc is usually injured. It's why he has played only once at the MCG in a seven-year Test career.

Starc could make up for lost time at the 'G in the Boxing Day Test against an India batting line-up which could be vulnerable to his fast, late swing and there are reasons to believe that the 5/2 is a bet for top first-innings Australia bowler.

For a start, and most importantly, he should be shorter on historic data. Based on the number of times Starc actually 'wins' in this market he should be about 13/8.

The pitch is also a huge factor in his favour (as discussed in the match preview). Or rather it goes against the market favourite, Nathan Lyon who goes off at 2/1.

Lyon is extremely impressive and he is in excellent form having bowled Australia to victory in Perth with a man of the match performance. He is still rated at about only 25 per cent for success, though, on our data.

The wicket in Melbourne is very green this time and the pacers have been to the fore in domestic Sheffield Shield cricket. On those reports it would be surprising to see Lyon used as much as the pace attack.

Of course, we cannot discount the possibility of Josh Hazlewood or Pat Cummins copping. They are both dangerous and highly-skilled in even mundane conditions. Hazlewood and Cummins are 11/4 and 10/3 respectively. Hazlewood is too short but it is Cummins who could be considered the real value. We rate him at closer to 11/8.

More filters are required, then. If we look at Test matches when both Starc and Cummins have been playing we get a better idea for the head-to-head between two bowlers who should be favourites.

From eight matches, Cummins has the edge with three outright wins to Starc's two. They shared honours once. Lyon has two wins and Hazlewood one. However, Starc has one more wicket than Cummins and a superior strike rate by 3.2.

Ashwin worth taking on

If any statistic highlights the difficulty India face when travelling it is the player performance (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket) make-ups of Ravi Ashwin. At home he's unstoppable averaging 160 per match. Away from home it's 123.

At the 'G, Ashwin is given a mark over/under at 5/6 the pair of 124.5 by Sportsbook. It's high on that number away from home but hardly big enough to claim it's value.

However, strip out Ashwin's performances in other Asian countries and the average dips to 113 per match. That's the sort of gap that interests us.

With Ashwin struggling with an injury (he is not a confirmed starter as we write) and the Melbourne wicket grassy, it looks worth going under. It could be that Ashwin plays half-fit with India under pressure after defeat in Perth. That would suit us.