Australia v India First Test betting: Adelaide ever reliable for big runs

Kohli has ground form at Adelaide
Kohli has ground form at Adelaide

Ed Hawkins previews the first Test of four, which starts late Monday night, and crunches the numbers to reveal the venue is one of the best for batting...

"A back-to-lay of the draw from 3.412/5 to odds on in-play looks a wise call, particularly given the prevalence for massive runs in the first two digs. We could be in clover very early on if both batting sides make the most of the surface."

Australia v India
Start time: 00.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

Australia

The hosts are sweating on the fitness of captain Michael Clarke, who is suffering from a hamstring injury. Clarke trained with the squad for the first time on Sunday and it remains to be seen whether he is risked with a heavy schedule coming up.

If he is out, Brad Haddin will lead and Shaun Marsh could come in. There are also doubts over David Warner, who has been struggling in the aftermath of Phil Hughes's death. Ryan Harris is fit again after injury and he is expected to be part of a three-pronged pace attack alongside Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle. Nathan Lyon provides the spin option. 


India

Perhaps a sign of how well prepared India are for this series is that their captain, MS Dhoni, has only just arrived in Adelaide. He has been absent with a fractured thumb but it is poor that he has not been recuperating with the team. Virat Kohli will stand in as captain if he doesn't make it with Wriddhiman Saha keeping wicket. 

It is a far from a settled India line-up. They must decide whether to ditch out-of-form opener Shikhar Dhawan for Rohit Sharma, whether to play both Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja and, if they do, who the third seamer will be.

Bhuv Kumar and Mohammad Shami look likely to start and Varun Aaron has put his hand up to join them after five wickets in the most recent warm-up match.


Series odds

You can read a full preview series here. But suffice to say India, who are least successful in Australia than anywhere, are struggling. The odds reflect that. Australia are 1.261/4, India 8.07/1 and the draw 9.617/2.


Match odds

India are the world's worst travellers and betting on them to be reliable is asking for trouble but if they can't score runs in Adelaide they can't score runs anywhere. Their horrible collapse in England in the summer may be a little too fresh in the memory for most to consider placing any faith in them but there would appear to be little to fear in this Test.

The wicket is so placid that India's hugely talented batting line-up should feel right at home. Of course we would not consider backing them at 6.86/1 - a win percentage of 12.5 in Australia prevents that - but they should be capable of moving the draw price down.

A back-to-lay of the draw from 3.412/5 to odds on in-play looks a wise call, particularly given the prevalence for massive runs in the first two digs. We could be in clover very early on if both batting sides make the most of the surface.

These sides managed a draw at the venue in 2008 although India did fail to bat well in reply to Australia's massive 604 in 2012 and they went down by 298 runs. Australia are 1.784/5 for another win. Four of the six Tests which have produced results in the last ten years have been won by the side batting second. 


First-innings runs 

The first-innings average in the last ten years (nine matches) is 464. It confirms Adelaide's reputation as one of the finest batting surfaces in the world. Backing 500 or more in those games would have resulted in a winner on five occasions. We expect big runs again and should not be shy of getting long of 450 or more. Whether you can get a fair price is another matter, however. 


Top Australia batsman 

Clarke has scored more runs (543) than anyone in the last ten years at Adelaide with an average of 54. He scored a ton versus England last time and gets a 5.69/2 quote. Haddin, who also notched a century in that game, is 12.011/1. Warner is 4.84/1.


Top India batsman
Virat Kohli, who scored a century at Adelaide in 2012, is a fair jolly at 4.67/2. Rohit, if he plays, looks a big price at 6.05/1. Murali Vijay and Chet Pujara are 5.24/1. Dhoni is 9.08/1.


Recommended Bet

Back-to-lay the draw from 3.412/5 to sub 2.01/1

Ed Hawkins P/L

2014: +364.80

2013: +250.80 (ROI 25%)

To £10 level stakes, based only on available prices

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses
Bet now

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles