Australia v India
Saturday, 03:20 GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports 3
After their 25-run win in Canberra Australia are on course for a record 19th consecutive home victory. They last lost a home ODI to South Africa in Perth November 2014.
In the first three ODI in the series they won chasing and in game four they showed they can defend a target. Well, sort of. They were indebted to India's pathetic collapse - losing nine wickets for 46 runs - when defeat was staring them in the face. The tourists were matched at 1.021/50 for the win on the Exchange.
David Warner and Aaron Finch, who notched a century, had earlier shared a 187-run opening stand and there were brutal cameos from Steve Smith and Glenn Maxwell.
John Hastings and Mitchell Marsh took two wickets apiece and were economical but Kane Richardson's five-wicket haul ripped the heart from India's chase.
India will be without Ajinkya Rahane after the batsman split the webbing in his hand in Canberra. Manish Pandey is expected to take his place.
In another change Ravi Ashwin should return in place of Rishi Dhawan on a Sydney wicket which is expected to take turn. Axar Patel is also in the frame. Pacers Bhuv Kumar, Umesh Yadav and Ishant Shara will continue.
Here are the last ten first-innings scores at the SCG (most recent first): 328-133-376-408-234-280-243-220-222-252. That gives us an average of 270 and although it is a mixed bag of scores it would be fair to expect runs with three monster totals in the last four. There could be some rain around with thunderstorms forecast. If the skies were clearer we would not hesitate backing 325 or more, regardless of who bats first.
Australia refuse to go sub 1.42/5 and they are chalked up at 1.434/9 for this one. India are 3.211/5. It is slightly surprising after proving in four consecutive games that they are the better side they have not dipped at all.
It could be explained by the market knowing that Australia can't bowl, either. And why would you want to side with a team at such skinny odds who, despite winning, have conceded big totals in each of the games so far?
The converse argument is that why would anyone get with India when they have proved their batsmen are as profligate as their bowlers.? In the first three ODIs they wasted opportunities to post imposing totals.
And when they were in pole position to chase one down, they folded. Their collapse from 227 for one to 277 all out in pursuit of 349 was a nadir. If they can't win from there, they can't win from anywhere.
There is no toss bias under lights. We expect Australia to chase 325 or thereabouts while India can be relied upon to go close but not close enough. Obviously there is plenty of trading available in such a scenario.
There is room therefore in India's price for a trade, particularly if they bat first. If they can post 300 they should dip to around even money.
Top Australia runscorer
Warner has scored more runs than anyone in the last five years, totalling 381 runs at 47. Smith has a superior average at 51, however. The pair are 4.1 and 4.03/1 respectively. Finch, who averages 40, is 4.47/2.
Top India runscorer
Shikhar Dhawan and Virat Kohli scored tons in Canberra but it was criminal neither finished the job. Rohit Sharma failed for once so will reckon he is due.
Back-to-lay India at 3.259/4 to 2.01/1 if they bat 1st