Hawk Eye - Australia v England Fifth ODI: Maxwell back with a bang

Maxwell could shine in Perth
Maxwell could shine in Perth
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Ed Hawkins tries to find an edge on the numbers for the game in Perth on Sunday and suggests a man who has been big in the Bash could go well...

"Before the ODI series Smith questioned his professionalism and training methods. Maxwell responded by hitting 299 runs at a strike rate of 154"

There's nothing we dislike more than trying to find a wager for a cricket match which is being played on an unfamiliar surface. And that is precisely what the Perth's Optus Stadium will be to Australia, England and everybody watching on television.

It makes us feel uncomfortable. If only this game was being played at the Waca we would know exactly what to expect. Pace and bounce. And a fortress for Australia - they have won 11 of their last 13 ODI at the Waca.

At the Optus, as far as we can make out, there has been one match. Perth Scorchers, the Big Bash champions, beat England Lions by six runs in a T20 match. Batting first, Perth's total of 148 suggested a sluggish, tacky surface. But we can't be sure.

What we do know is that it is a drop-in pitch, prepared by the same ground staff who work at the Waca. Drop-in pitches do have a reputation as being bland, however.

Steve Smith, the Australia captain, has been told that there could be some bounce. Patches of grass would suggest some help for the seamers, too.

"The games they played up here," Smith said, "it was a little bit up and down, a bit two-paced. It's hard to tell sometimes with the drop-in wickets when they're first being used. It'll be interesting to see how it goes."

Smith is having a poor run of form in this format and pitch discussions aside, he gave a clue to his mindset which will alert bettors.

"It has been a long summer," he said. "The way I've batted in this one-day series has been a bit disappointing. I just haven't felt quite at home, where I'd like to be, particularly coming off the way I was batting in Test cricket in Sydney.

"I'd like to try and end this one-day series with a score, and help the boys win the last game of the series as well."

That sounds like a guy who is exhausted. A record of 90 runs in the series at an average of 22 backs that up. So it might not be a bad idea to be getting against him here. It might be possible to lay him for 25 on the exchange at around the [2.1] mark.

His malaise, a similarly lethargic David Warner- his record is shocking with 58 runs at 15 - and Aaron Finch absent injured means the top Australia bat market is wide open.

With Head set to continue in the opening berth, he will be well supported at [4.6] on the exchange. The value, though, could be Glenn Maxwell at [8.2] on the exchange or 7/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.

Maxwell has been called up as Finch's replacement and it would be a surprise if he did not bat at No 3 instead of Cameron White, who has not troubled England. Australia need to rediscover some aggression in the top order and it is widely recognised that Maxwell is the man to do it. Clearly if he bats there he should be much shorter.

Pleasingly, he is value in terms of how often he top scores. He is copping like a 6/1 shot. That gives us a bit of an edge. It might also please you to know that Maxwell has an awful lot to prove.

Before the ODI series Smith questioned his professionalism and training methods. Maxwell responded by hitting 299 runs at a strike rate of 154.

Still betting on England force

The four-ce (see what we've done there?) was not with England in the last ODI. Australia hit more boundary fours than them, which is rare over our one-year, two-year and three-year study. So it's an outlier.

We would expect England's more aggressive approach to pay dividends here again though. Despite the setback, they are clear and present value at 10/11 with Betfair Sportsbook. Australia have been favourites on this market previously and the line has been adjusted. But not far enough.

Hawk-Eye P-L

2018 - points p-l: +1.4 (11 points staked)
2017 - points p-l: +5.29 (26 points staked)

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