Super Bowl Betting Preview: Quarter-backs will be catalysts in a thrilling contest

Super Bowl / Andy Richmond / 05 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Super Bowl 44 - it's going to be close and it could be a classic

"This has the potential to be a great Super Bowl with great sub plots; defences need to step up, offences must maintain their season-long levels and the coaches will battle to out-think each other..."

Super Bowl 44 has makings of a classic but, while the neutrals will be supporting them, do New Orleans possess the power and versatility to deny the Colts a second title in four years? Andy Richmond selects the best bets for Sunday's big game.

There are never any shortage of storylines surrounding a Super Bowl and number 44 is no different. Colts QB Peyton Manning faces his hometown team, once quarter-backed by his father, as the Indianapolis Colts try for their second title in four years on Sunday. They match-up Drew Brees and a New Orleans Saints team making its Super Bowl debut and carrying the hopes of a city and the majority of neutrals watching the game.

For the first time for 17 years, the two number one seeds go head to head, although that doesn't guarantee a close game - Dallas blowing away Buffalo 30-13 in 1993. Much of the talk surrounding this game has concerned the two quarter-backs; we have two of the best on display here and both Manning and Brees will be the catalysts for their sides.

The majority of previous Super Bowl winners have had a good defence and often defences win Championships. Not this year as both of these have defensive units are very much overshadowed by their offensive counterparts. That's not to say that the defences won't have a big say on Sunday - getting pressure on both quarter-backs is key in this game and, although neither side is perceived as a sack machine, they do both contain two players that have 13 sacks each this season - Will Smith (Saints) and Dwight Freeney (Colts).

Freeney has a well documented injury problem and is 50/50 to make Sunday. His absence would be a massive blow for the Colts and gift the Saints an advantage. Expect both units to be challenged deep by the quarter-backs - the corners on both sides are particularly vulnerable and will need to perform at the highest level to be effective; gaining pressure up front is vital to both units in order to protect them.

Speed is the biggest weapon on both defences but some of the one on one match ups that the offences could create will be very testing. The Saints will have a tough job covering Pro Bowl tight end Dallas Clark and any mismatches will be ruthlessly exploited by Manning. Similarly, the Saints deep threat offered by big receivers Devery Henderson and Marques Colston will provide the Colts with big problems if not handled correctly.

Both offences are high powered and capable of lighting up the scoreboard quickly. On Sunday I expect both sides to be a little more conservative than usual - in the last 10 Superbowls only 48 points have been scored in the first quarter. Neither offence think run first but, with rain forecast on Sunday and ball security at a premium, it may form a bigger part of their plan than usual.

The Saints especially have a great one-two-three punch and versatility out of the backfield with X-factor Reggie Bush leading Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell - watch for them use this option to regularly to sustain drives rather than taking deep shots down the field. The Colts had great success against the Jets through the air, dominating the NFL's No1 ranked defence via their young receiving duo Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, who stepped up when premier receiver Reggie Wayne attracted double coverage. The Colts will also run, but that will be more of a deception tool and a secondary part of the offence. The greater balance probably lies with the Saints - the better execution with the Colts on offence.

This has the potential to be a great Super Bowl with great sub-plots; defences need to step up, offences must maintain their season-long level and the coaches will battle to out-think each other - expect to see lots of adjustments, ebbs and flows and momentum swings in this contest.

Only six Super Bowls have gone over 60 points. While this one gives every indication of being a shootout, the sharp bet is the under on such a high total. The possibility of wet weather compounds this. Two things lead me to the under: the probability both teams will run the ball, which will wind the clock down, and the likelihood that both defences will stack their backfields, making quick scores extremely difficult.

Outright, for me the Colts just have a little more about them in terms of experience and know how. But I would only want to support them on the smallest handicap as this could be close.

Suggested Bets:

Back Indianapolis -4.5 points, 1 ½ points at 2.0 or better
Back Under 56.5 match points, 2 points at 2.02 or better