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NFL Betting, Week 16 : No smiles for resurgent Redskins on Christmas weekend

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Andy Richmond can't see the Washington boys reaching the play-offs...

Sixteen gone home for Christmas, four to go, that's the equation in Week 15 of the NFL, and the next few days will see the play-off picture clear even further. In truth, much of the picture is very clear with the majority of the places and positions locked down and teams hoping to avoid injury and loss of momentum now.

No game this week pits two teams with winning records against each other. It makes you long for the days when there were no 14-0 teams or 1-13 teams (welcome to the party Miami) and when nearly everyone entered December 6-6 and spent the remainder of the month living out the NFL dream of parity in it's ultimate form. There is really only one game on the schedule this week that involves two potential play-off particpants.

Still there were several games which caught the eye and SKY Sports are doing us proud this week with extensive coverage. Unfortunately, a possible ripsnorter - the stuttering Giants against the Bills (whose post-season hopes were extinguished in the snow at Cleveland last week) - has been passed over.

The Giants are encountering their usual second-half slump to the season. Having been 6-2, they have now gone 3-3 and are without a home win since a high-octane victory against the 49ers way back on mid-October. Lose this and they will be more than glancing over their shoulders at divisional rivals Washington who defeated them last week. Thankfully for the Giants, the Skins have a schedule which is the hardest amongst the remaining play off contenders.

So the Giants are in control of their own destiny though doubts persist about their personnel - they lost TE Jeremy Shockey for the year last week and that means their offence is about to become even more one dimensional. My advice to coach Coughlin would be keep the ball on the ground and pound the Bills defence between the tackles just like the Browns did last week with Jamal Lewis, he was rewarded with 163 yards and I could see the bruising 260 pound Brandon Jacobs replicating those statistics here.

The Giants sack or get burned policy on defence has brought more burn than sack against the better offences. However, their front four and linebackers should be able to hustle and hurry the rookie QB Trent Edwards into mistakes. He doesn't throw deep often and with the Buffalo weather - the early forecast is rain, snow showers and cold temperatures - expect more plenty of hand-offs to RB Marshawn Lynch.

Make no mistake this will be a low scoring, battling game of football. The Giants have the motivation and the need to win and I think they will, but it could be their last of the season with the Patriots up next week. New England will be chasing 16-0, and after that it'll be a tough first round play-off game. The Giants are [1.77] for the win, although I might pay the -2.5 point premium to play the Giants at as near to [1.98] as I can get. One final piece of advice on this game, if the Giants are in front and trade short be prepared to sacrifice a few bob to cover your stakes as every time I see them they seem to be able to try and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

It could be a late night in the Richmond household on Sunday as the best clash of the weekend - apart from the Packers beating the Bears - sees the Vikings take on the Redskins in the late Sunday night game.

Talking about Washington, NFL.com said: " The stars could be starting to align for a team many are cheering for". On a wave of goodwill after the tragic death of Sean Taylor a few weeks ago, the Skins have dragged themselves to 7-7 but the stars were not aligned when they were handed a closing schedule of a trip to Minnesota and hosting a Cowboys team which in all likelihood will still need a win next week to be absolutely sure of the top spot in the NFC.

The Vikings are on a five game winning streak and it's not only the wins but the manner of the victories, after getting shut out by the Packers back in Week 10 the Vikings have outscored their opponents 159-69, averaging 31.8 points per game on offence. Despite their obvious strength in running the ball with the dual threat of rookie sensation Adrian Peterson and the underrated Chester Taylor, the Vikes are no longer afraid to put the ball in the air with improving young QB Tavaris Jackson impressing with his confidence and ability to spread the ball around. If he improves his accuracy then the Vikings will have a decent on-field general. The Redskins are going to have their hands full to contain the Peterson and Taylor one-two punch and as they don't blitz that often, Jackson should have the requisite time that he needs to maintain a balanced offence.

The Redskins will run as much as Minnesota but they will be doing so against a very solid run defence, Portis and Betts were successful last week against the tough front seven of the Giants but I'd question if they can do it two weeks in a row against a team who have a tough, competitive look at the moment and are ranked first against the run.

The Skins have had an emotion-fuelled and fine end to the season but they are going to have a tough time running on the Vikings here and I can see their defence being overpowered. There's no weather factor to worry about here either - not unless the wind takes the roof off the stadium. This may be competitive but not as close as the teams' records suggest and I'd still want to be with the men in purple to continue their run to the post season party and take the winning streak to six - play them giving up 6.5 points at around the [1.98] mark and take a small piece of the points action on Minnesota for them to put over 23.5 points on the Skins at [1.88].

It just remains for me to wish my reader(!) a very happy Christmas and a very profitable NFL New Year.

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