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Australian Open Betting: Looking for an upset in Melbourne? Check these five out...

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Barry Millns looks at potential first round upsets...

Having already seen ninth seed Andy Murray knocked out on the opening afternoon of the Australian Open by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, there will be plenty of other top players wary of lower ranked opponents upsetting them in the first round. The following matches could produce upsets [match odds listed after each name]:

Nicolas Almagro ESP (27th seed) [1.85] vs. Marin Cilic CRO [2.12]
Although Almagro, aged 22, is far more experienced and ranked 26 places higher than the 19 year-old Cilic, he has failed to win a match in three previous visits to Melbourne Park. So the Spaniard is sure to feel some pressure trying to end that jinx against an up-and-coming player he has never faced before.

Warming up for the Australian Open, Almagro secured only one win in Auckland before losing to the hard-hitting Frenchman Julien Benneteau. In Cilic he faces another towering Croat with a big serve, who reached the semi-finals in Chennai and who, like Tsonga against Murray, should make some good advances to the net to rush Almagro back on his baseline.

Cilic climbed more than 100 places last season, his 14 match wins including two over world No.4 Nikolay Davydenko and he is already close to breaking into the Top 50.

Thomas Johansson SWE [3.75] vs. Marcos Baghdatis CYP (15th seed) [1.35]

Fast approaching his 33rd birthday and some ten years older than Baghdatis, who is ranked 35 places higher, it may be stretching it to say the Swede will definitely cause an upset. But the 2002 champion is still capable of producing some world-class tennis, like he did in last year's Davis Cup semi-final against James Blake.

Back then Johnasson served superbly and although he lost his only previous match with Baghdatis two years ago in Cincinnati, both sets went without a break to tiebreaks, the Swede hitting no fewer than 22 aces! If he can serve as well as that against the 2006 runner-up, who failed to live up to his billing last year in Melbourne and who lost his opening match of this season in Chennai, then Baghdatis beware.

Nicolas Kiefer GER [2.1] vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP (22nd seed) [1.89]

The last time Kiefer played in Melbourne he made the 2006 semi-finals. Among the men he beat back then in his best grand slam so far was Ferrero, the Spaniard falling in four sets and suffering his second loss in three matches against the German.

From mid-2006 Kiefer was forced out of action for a year by a serious wrist injury and in his first tournament of 2008, in Doha, he withdrew after winning his first round match because of a foot injury. But that was more precautionary than a major concern and if Kiefer's serve and movement to the net are not affected then Ferrero could still have his hands full, even though he is ranked more than 20 places higher and made the final last weekend in Auckland.

Sofia Arvidsson SWE [4.9] vs. Marion Bartoli (10th seed) [1.25]
Although currently ranked 70 places below Bartoli, Arvidsson has been a top-30 player and leads their head-to-head series 3-2. Bartoli has had the edge when they have played indoors on hard courts, as opposed to outdoors on clay, but in their last encounter in Quebec City she retired due to dizziness.

Arvidsson, a baseliner with a good backhand, has certainly enjoyed the better warm-up for Melbourne having battled through qualifying in Sydney and then scored her first top-20 win with victory over Elena Dementieva. Bartoli, who has failed to get past the second round of the Australian Open in six visits, made a second round exit from Sydney, falling to Francesca Schiavone.

Nathalie Dechy FRA [14.0] vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova (2nd seed) [1.07]
Okay, I know it is a long shot with Dechy ranked 65 places lower than the world No.2. But in the past the Frenchwoman has caused Kuznetsova plenty of problems and beaten her three times out of four.

Dechy won their first meeting in 2004 in Australia's Gold Coast. She then came from a set down to beat the Russian the same year in Moscow in the quarterfinals of the Fed Cup. Kuzentsova did win the following year at Eastbourne, but later in 2005 Dechy upset her again indoors on a hard court in Zurich.

Having just reached the final in Sydney, where she nearly beat Justine Henin, Kuznetsova knows she will be expected to win this one. But at times she is still mentally fragile and if Dechy mixes her up again by taking the pace off the ball, that, plus memories of their previous battles, could play increasingly on the Russian's mind.

14 January 2008 / About Barry Millns

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