Premier League: Tottenham's Champions League campaign to come at a price

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 08 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Gareth Bale is a key player for Tottenham at the moment but the stats suggest Spurs will struggle in the Premier League

"The Betfair markets indicate an expectation that Tottenham will finish sixth in the Premier League – they are in that position at [70.0] in the Winner 2010/11 market and in the Top 4 Finish market at [4.2] - but they could find it difficult to live up to that billing."

Andrew Atherley tells us why Tottenham may struggle on the domestic front this year as they dip their feet into the ever-choppy Champions League waters for the first time...

The season becomes really exciting for Tottenham and their fans over the coming week, as they embark on their first Champions League campaign, but history suggests punters shouldn't bank on Harry Redknapp's squad being able to cope with the twin demands of top-level competition in Europe and the Premier League.

The Betfair markets indicate an expectation that Tottenham will finish sixth in the Premier League - they are in that position at [70.0] in the Winner 2010/11 market and in the Top 4 Finish market at [4.2] - but they could find it difficult to live up to that billing.

Champions League regulars such as Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal have no problem with maintaining a high level at home and in Europe, but as a general rule that is not the case with first-time or occasional Champions League entrants.

The last English team to break the stranglehold of the 'big four' on the Champions League places was Everton, who finished fourth in 2004/05 but dropped to 11th the following season. Everton did not even reach the Champions League group stage, going out in the final qualifying round, and possibly that disappointment led to their under-achievement.

Tottenham will face a different problem, with a regular programme of demanding weekend and midweek matches now they have reached the Champions League proper. Apart from the October international break, they will be excused midweek duty a maximum of three times in the next three months.

On the continent, where occasional or first-time Champions League qualifiers are more common than in England, there have been numerous examples of teams dropping down their domestic table as the Champions League takes its toll. Only last season Wolfsburg went from first to eighth in the Bundesliga, Fiorentina fell from fourth to 11th in Serie A and Atletico Madrid dropped from fourth to ninth in La Liga.

Tottenham are likely to need a repeat of last season's total of 70 points to make the top four again and they could miss out on a top-six spot if they drop to the low 60s. Having already given up five points compared with the equivalent fixtures last season, it seems reasonable to expect some sort of fall this season.

Laying Tottenham at [4.3] for a Top 4 Finish looks a solid bet, but the more adventurous could go for an odds-on lay in the Top 6 Finish market at [1.58].


Across north London, a strong trend in Arsenal's home form in the Premier League could well be on show again on Saturday against Bolton.

Taking out games against top-eight finishers (and including their 6-0 win over Blackpool three weeks ago), Arsenal have won their last 17 home matches, going back to March last year. On the assumption that Bolton aren't a top-eight team, despite lying fifth in the early table, Arsenal rate a solid-gold bet at [1.25] on Saturday, but the Gunners' exceptional home win rate raises other possibilities.

Most of their home wins against teams outside the top eight have been achieved by clear-cut margins - of those 17 consecutive victories, all but one have been by at least two goals and eight (47%) have been by three goals or more.

That points to Arsenal at -1.5 & -2.0 on the Asian handicap as a good-value alternative to the straight win, as that bet would have been a full win eight times in those 17 matches and a half-stake win (with the other half returned) another eight times.
A general policy of backing Arsenal on the Asian handicap in such matches should continue to pay dividends, starting with Saturday's clash against Bolton.

Recommended bets

Lay Tottenham for a Top 6 Finish at [1.58]
Back Arsenal at -1.5&-2.0 on the Asian handicap v Bolton at [1.99]