Premier League Previews: Canaries too bright for Magpies

Premier League / Mike Norman / 09 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Norwich boss Paul Lambert

"Norwich and Newcastle haven't met since 2005 but this used to be a fixture where goals were almost guaranteed; in fact the last seven meetings all resulted in at least three goals being scored."

Mike Norman takes a look at three Saturday afternoon games in the Premier League and predicts plenty of goals at Carrow Road and The Hawthorns but not many at the Liberty Stadium.

Norwich v Newcastle, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Norwich [2.52], Newcastle [3.0], The Draw [3.5]

To be six points clear of the relegation zone approaching Christmas is a nice position to be in for Norwich, but with games coming thick and fast over the next four weeks they must take as many points as they possibly can from their home games.

The Canaries host Newcastle at a decent time as the Magpies are without a win in three (albeit against top opposition) and are likely to have both Steven Taylor and Fabricio Coloccini out injured.

So with key opposing defenders missing Norwich will fancy their chances of getting on the score sheet, especially given the fact that Paul Lambert's men have averaged just over two goals per game at Carrow Road during their last five home games. And as Opta point out, Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League matches.

These two clubs haven't met since 2005 but this used to be a fixture where goals were almost guaranteed; in fact the last seven meetings all resulted in at least three goals being scored. I don't envisage this encounter being any different, and I have a sneaky feeling that Norwich might win the game too; though I won't be jumping on the 'Newcastle's bubble has burst' bandwagon should this be the case.

Swansea v Fulham, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Swansea [2.76], Fulham [2.9], The Draw [3.4]

Away from home Swansea are pretty awful, but at the Liberty Stadium they are a very tough nut to crack; one defeat in seven and just two goals conceded shows how stubborn they are in front of their own fans. Fulham's problem away from home is scoring goals, so you might already be guessing where I'm going with this one.

The Opta stats confirm what I've already said, pointing out that the Swans have the best defensive record in the division on home turf (five clean sheets in seven games). But they don't score many either; exactly one per game (on average) in the league this season to be precise.

When you consider the Opta stat that tells us that the Cottagers are the joint lowest scorers in the league on their travels then it's is easy to understand why the Goals markets are the way to profit from this game. But whilst Fulham have scored just four goals on their travels there are only two clubs - Manchester United and Chelsea - in the division who have conceded fewer goals away from home.

The evidence is pretty damning then; the best home defensive side against the joint worst away scorers who don't concede many either. The 0-0 outcome in the Correct Score market is available to back at [9.6], whilst the Under 1.5 Goals option can be backed at [3.1].

West Brom v Wigan, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: West Brom [1.72], Wigan [6.0], The Draw [3.9]

On current form I would fancy any club in the country on their home turf to beat woeful Wigan, so West Brom are definitely my fancies to win this match.

I said last week not to get carried away with the four points the Latics had taken in their previous two outings as they came virtue of games against bottom of the table (at the time) Blackburn, and seriously out of form Sunderland. Wigan then duly lost 0-4 at home to Arsenal. They are destined for the drop in my opinion, unless they improve their squad significantly in the January transfer window.

Opta point out that Wigan haven't won back-to-back away games since 2006, so although Albion have been slightly disappointing this term they should still be too strong for Saturday's visitors.

West Brom have hosted Wigan a total of seven times in their history and on every occasion both teams got on the score sheet with an average of 3.7 goals per game being scored. With Roberto Martinez's side being a bit goal shy on their travels this term I'm not too confident of the trend continuing, but at [2.0] to back, Over 2.5 Goals is worth a punt based on historical results.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.9] in Norwich v Newcastle
Back Norwich @ [2.52] to beat Newcastle
Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [9.6] in Swansea v Fulham
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ [3.1] in Swansea v Fulham
Back West Brom @ [1.72] to beat Wigan
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.0] in West Brom v Wigan