Premier League Betting: Fulham v Arsenal

Premier League / James Eastham / 25 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Eduardo looks like being back to something like his best form, which he was showing before a horrific injury sustained against Birmingham City.

Recommended bets: Fulham v Arsenal both teams to score @ 1.92; Arsenal -1 Asian handicap @ 1.98; Eduardo to score @ 2.5.

Fulham are almost impossible to read this season, which is just one of the reasons why you should focus your betting attention on Arsenal when they travel to Craven Cottage on Saturday evening, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Both teams to Score @ [1.92].

I don't know what's happened to Fulham over the summer, but Roy Hodgson's side are no longer a predictable betting proposition. From being one of the most reliable teams in the Premier League last season, they're now more difficult to read than James Joyce.

The Cottagers' home form was a treasure trove for Premier League punters last season, as they won eight, drew three and lost just one of 12 games at Craven Cottage until the start of March. On the road, the trend for low goals was equally strong - 11 of 14 games during the same time period had under 2.5 goals, including six 0-0 draws.

Their results this season read: 1-0 v Portsmouth (a), 0-2 v Chelsea (h), 0-2 v Aston Villa (a), 2-1 v Everton (h) and 1-2 v Wolves (a). No pattern, no trends - and no way of punters knowing what sort of a performance or result Fulham will deliver.

Arsenal's strongest trend is for goals - at both ends of the pitch. Their five Premier League games have spawned 25 goals, including a 6-1 win at Everton, two lots of four against Portsmouth (4-1) and Wigan (4-0) and four leaked at the wrong end when they lost 4-2 at Manchester City. [1.89] is a larger price than I expected on over 2.5 goals, so it was going to be my first selection until I noticed that both teams to score was available at [1.92]. That's better value than 'overs', unless you think Arsenal will win 3-0, because it covers the 1-1 draw.

Arsenal are favourites to win the match at [1.58], a price that initially looked a little short against opponents who won this fixture 1-0 last season thanks to an early Brede Hangeland goal. Yet I'm happier backing Arsenal at odds-on than Fulham at [7.6] or even the draw at [4.1], because I expect Arsenal, who are so difficult to peg back once they're ahead, to assume control of the game from the outset. To me, the chances of Arsenal taking the lead and going on to win comfortably are bigger than the odds on Fulham earning a draw, so I prefer Arsenal with a -1-goal start on the Asian handicap at [1.98] to Fulham with a +1-goal start at [1.92].

Andriy Arshavin returns after three games out with a groin injury. How the Gunners have missed their Russia striker, a player with the potential to be among the most consistently dangerous two or three footballers in the country. If the 28-year-old former Zenit St Petersburg star is named in the starting line-up, I'd back Eduardo in the 'to score' market at a price of around [2.5], because the elusive Croatia striker will benefit more than anybody from Arshavin's return. Fulham's defence has been unpicked by quick, nimble strikers already this season - and they don't get any nimbler than Arsenal's front two.

* Fulham v Arsenal, live on ESPN, Saturday, 5pm (5.30pm kick-off)