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Premiership
Manchester United v Liverpool: Bet on a tight, cagey affair at Old Trafford
Ignore Sky's hype - this will be no classic, says Richard Walker
Let me say this first: Liverpool - and in particular their manager Rafael Benitez - will have not losing (as opposed to winning) top of their agenda at Old Trafford. Sunday's visitors know deep down their title chances are long gone, so they sure as hell aren't going to give Sir Alex Ferguson's men what they want: an open, attacking game of football.
Benitez normally does his best school homework ahead of Champions League ties but I reckon he'll have saved a special page in his workbook and have a sharpened HB pencil waiting to be plucked from his pencil case to jot down his formulae of frustration. Infuriating he must be for Reds' fans, but uncanny at getting it right for massive matches he also is.
And you know, at [4.4], for me there's something strangely backable about Liverpool, with perhaps the cover of the draw at [3.3] to back. The Merseysiders will care not for looking to win the game, I've said as much already - but if the chances present themselves on the back of
United's greater need for three points with, say, the game level in its final 20 minutes or so, then the white-hot Fernando Torres is just the sort of striker to make the Red Devils pay for any defensive inaccuracies. I think this fact is particularly pertinent given United centre-half Rio Ferdinand is likely to miss out with a back injury and the inexperienced Gerard Piquet rates his likely replacement.
A home win yields [2.1] when backed. The fact United are a shade over than evens at home shows, for me, the regard in which Benitez's big-game tactics are held. The Spaniard's got few selection worries ahead of the game. All those that took to the field to beat Reading at Anfield last weekend are lining up present and correct, although the cautious approach might see
out-and-out winger Ryan Babel sacrificed for the more defensively-minded John Arne Riise.
The start of the two-part 'Grand Slam Sunday' is what you'll be witnessing, if you care for the Sky Sports hyperbole surrounding such fixture computer peccadilloes. The two sides clashing are the most in-form in the division, franked by their appearance at numbers one and two in a 'last six games' form table; the Reds of Manchester are looking to make it five league wins in a row while consecutive victory number six is the aim for the Reds of Merseyside.
Despite United's free-scoring nature - and Liverpool's similarly goal-rich recent form, I'm suggesting the [1.68] to back about Unders in the Under/Over 2.5 goals market should be taken. And of the lower-scoring Correct Score market options, my preference is for 0-0, at [9.8] to back, or the [7.0] to back about a one-all draw. I favour the scoreless stalemate since the two teams have shipped the fewest goals this season (Liverpool 20 and United just 15!). And three of Liverpool's other 'Big Four' fixtures this term have ended in parity.
Looking at the First Goalscorer flutters, if there are to be goals then you don't need me to tell you the likely sources are Cristiano Ronaldo and Fernando Torres. United's talisman is [5.8] to back to register first while, if you think Torres will be the difference, he can be backed at [7.4]. In my opinion, doing both makes most sense, however it's only fair to point out that United have opened the scoring an unrivalled 24 times this term.
I am keen not to sound too strong on any of the above staking options since there is the very real imponderable of an early goal for either side and the script of a cagey, sterile draw being left in tatters. You, of course, will go your own way and rightly so - it's just that I can't remember the last time I watched a real thriller of a match involving the so-called 'Big Four'...
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Events calendar
15/05/2008 | Cricket
Eng v NZ 1st Test - Lords
25/05/2008 | Formula One
Monaco - GP
26/05/2008 | Tennis
French Open (Paris)




