Manchester United v Arsenal: Using the stats to find value

Champions League / Matthew Walton / 28 April 2009 / Leave a comment

As two tactical geniuses prepare to do battle at Old Trafford, Betting.Betfair's stats wizard Matthew Walton explains how you can use the figures to make the shrewdest bets in Wednesday night's Champions League semi-final first leg.

It's another year when sides from the Premier League have dominated Europe's premier cup competition as, for the third year running, the English top flight provide three of the four remaining teams.

Some may consider Chelsea to be the unlucky side in this respect, having to face the Spanish giants of Barcelona, but it seems little easier for Manchester United and Arsenal. These two, already overly-familiar, teams must face each other for the first time in European terms but on the back of countless domestic encounters.

As such, both sets of players, fans and managers know exactly what to expect over the two legs of this intriguing encounter ... but do we Betfair traders? It's doubtful whether we are as familiar with the statistics of these matches as the two sides are of each other.

Hence, we set about looking at some of the data produced by this fixture - which dates back to 1894/95 - with a view to pinpointing some value bets for this eagerly awaited all-English tie.

And, incidentally, since that date the record reads - Manchester United won 82, Arsenal won 77, draws 45.

We've chosen to highlight the last 10 seasons, starting with the 1998/99 campaign, to flag up a few talking points (and betting angles) on this battle for a place in Rome on May 27th.

Match Odds

Whilst both sides have dominated their home fixtures in recent times, the results clearly point to the home win being 'odds on' as poor value. In the last 10 and a bit seasons, United's home record against Arsenal is W5 D3 L2 (the reverse, at Highbury/Emirates, Arsenal W5 D4 L2). As such, the price of Sir Alex's side to win [1.85] can hardly be classed as generous - unless traders are pinning their hopes on Arsenal suffering from the absence of Adebayor, Van Persie, Arshavin et al.

Correct Score

The only thing teams talk about in European ties these days is the importance of 'away goals' - in some cases this pre-occupation has overtaken the actual result itself! Arsene Wenger surely will be happy with an away goal and even if United were to win 2-1, maybe even 3-1, he would give his side a realistic chance back on home soil. Arsenal have scored in 6 of their last 10 trips to Old Trafford, every time just the once. United have failed to score in 3 of these 10 games but have scored once (on two occasions), twice (on four occasions) and six times in that bizarre match in 2001.

As such, and given the above view of the match result, a 1-1 draw [8.2] and 2-1 United win [10.0] look viable options.

Over/Under Goals

It's interesting to note that in the last five seasons in the Champions League, the 20 SF ties played have produced a total of just 36 goals - that's a mere 1.8 goals/game when you might normally expect around 2.5 per game when choosing any particular match at random.

So, should we expect few goals on Wednesday night? Quite possibly. The last 10 matches at Old Trafford have seen 'over 2.5 goals' on just two occasions. No wonder the 'under' is [1.76].

Statistically, the evidence for a low-scoring encounter is easy to spot. For sure, we could see another case like Chelsea/Liverpool - where a previously considered low scoring affair turned into an absolute goalfest - but, over time, it's surely better to follow the data.

Half Time Score

The most recent encounters in the North West have seen little great activity in the first period. Take out that freak result in 2001, when United led 5-1 at half-time, and there have only been two goals scored in the first half of the other nine matches with the spread of results being 0-0 (7 times), 1-0 to United (once) and 1-0 to Arsenal (once).

The draw at 45 minutes is trading at [2.18] and the 0-0 draw at [2.9] - and it's easy to see why.

These statistics should also be borne in mind for the over/under markets as, if there are to be goals in this tie, the data clearly points to the happening in the latter stages - so be mindful of drifting prices and clear in-running possibilities.

Half Time/Full Time

Another market which is linked, by collateral figures, to the above. Should we expect a draw at half-time then our options in this particular market are reduced and the value, it follows, is increased.

The choices are draw HT/United FT [4.9], draw HT/draw FT [5.8] and draw HT/Arsenal FT [12.0].

Should you fancy Fergie's team to prevail in 90 minutes then the figures would suggest the HF/FT route is quite an attractive option - turning a [1.85] chance into a [4.9] shot.

To Qualify

United currently trade at [1.64] with the Gunners at [2.52]. Worth bearing in mind here that the Red Devils have made the SF's of this competition 10 times before ... and their record is won 3, lost 7 (all three wins preceeded lifting the trophy, in 1968, 1999 and 2008).

Arsenal have played just the one previous SF in the Champions League, beating Villareal over two legs in 2006.

Advantage to the Gunners, maybe, on the strength of this data - then again, United have never lost to Arsenal in a SF of any competition (played 4, won 4).

These are just half a dozen markets from the wide range of options available on Betfair - we could quite easily talk about the first goalscorer, total bookings and corners, time of the first goal etc as plenty of information is freely available about these two, well-known teams who have a long history of playing each other.

The match, in itself, will be a fascinating affair and if a little gloss is taken off the spectacle (to the neutral) by the absence of a few notable players, this only heightens the interest in how such matters effect the betting.

Two of the Premier League's longest serving managers go head-to-head once again. The record to date in their 37 previous encounters reads - Ferguson W14, Wenger W13, Draws 10. It couldn't be much closer. However, what we can see from the above figures is that one or two plays do present themselves on Betfair when you have the right data at your disposal.