Champions League / Alsy / 24 February 2009 / Leave a comment

After Chelsea and Manchester United contested last year's final of European football's blue-ribband event, Alister Morgan discusses the chances of lightning striking again.

As the Champions League resumes the Premier League has four representatives in the knock-out stages: Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and defending Champions Manchester United complete a quartet of teams that few teams want to face.

In 2007 three out of four semi-finalists were Premier League teams. In 2008 history repeated itself again with Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester reaching the semi-finals but this time the English went one better when Manchester United and Chelsea made the final. As the business end of the Champions League begins, what are the chances of another all-Premiership Champions League final in Rome?

You can back "yes" to an All English Final at [7.2] or "no" at [1.13] but (considering recent history) you might ask why the "yes" odds seem so generous? An all-Italian final happened in 2003 when Milan beat Juventus on penalties so there is further precedent. More importantly, there's growing evidence that English clubs are becoming increasingly capable of negotiating there way past Europe's elite

Take Liverpool... long before they made a decent fist of challenging for the Premier League they had become past-masters of functional European football reaching two finals in three years. Since then Rafa Benitez has significantly improved his squad (surely Liverpool would have beaten AC Milan in 2005 with Fernando Torres?) and will expect to reach the closing stages of the competition. They have every chance of doing so as European football compliments their safety-first approach. It's not that Liverpool are completely bereft of creativity but they are over-reliant on Steven Gerrard and Torres but if Rafa's dynamic duo can remain fit, then they are excellent value at [6.2] to reach this year's final.

Arsenal are a different case entirely. While Liverpool have been consistent in Europe you're never certain how Wenger's charges will perform. After they lost to Barcelona in 2006 we hoped that Arsenal might build on the experience but arguably the reverse has been true. Last year they lost an epic quarter-final encounter to Liverpool and seemed shell-shocked that their rapier-like football had been dulled.

Now with Arshavin ineligible and Adebayor, Fabregas, Walcott and Eduardo injured Arsenal will be hoping to survive long enough to hit their stride. Chelsea are [4.2] to reach this year's final, offering fantastic value in my view. Admittedly their domestic form has been limp at critical stages of the season but they certainly do no lack the raw materials. Better still, with the Premiership crown seemingly out of reach, Chelsea can focus their entire resources on conquering Europe.

Truth be told I wasn't overly impressed with Chelsea's January signing of Ricardo Quaresma but I was blown away by their stunning February recruit. Guus Hiddink is a master tactician and has the necessary skills to steer Chelsea to success. Put simply, he's pretty much seen it all and won it all along the way so I eagerly anticipate Hiddink turning things around in some style. When I look at Chelsea's squad, and assess the character of the personnel, I consider [4.2] surprisingly generous and if I had to select one Premier League team to reach the final, it would be Chelsea.

It's no shock that the odds on Manchester United making another final are smaller. You can back them at [3.75] to reach this year's final and, on paper, they seem most likely to make the Rome final from this Premiership quartet. They've hit their stride despite some key injuries and are simply the team that no one wants to face - despite what Jose Mourinho may say.

All-in-all it feels a little too early to back another all-English final especially with Barcelona looking so menacing. There's enough quality from the Premier League to win the tournament but I suspect they'll have to overcome continental opposition at the last hurdle.