Betfair Official Blog

Champions League

Champions League Final: Brace yourselves, this one's going to get tight

Click here to view market

Frank Gregan has poured over the Champions League odds and has some selections. If it comes to penalties we know who he'll be backing...

"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." That quotation attributed to Henry Ford is known by any professional who has responsibility for motivating a work force. The quote sums up two of the most oft used football buzzwords, 'confidence and belief.'

There are a whole host of crucial games this week with the play-offs at the weekend and of course the gigantic encounter in Moscow on Wednesday. Every side that is involved will have held team meetings during which the opponents' strengths and weaknesses will have been discussed. At the end of every meeting each player will have been told that his team will win and that they'll win because they are better than the opposition. The mantra from the gaffer at the end of those meetings will have been along the lines of: "relax, be confident and believe, we are going to win this one!"

Confidence is a fragile commodity and is probably the main reason why some teams do not practice for a penalty shoot out. It is almost an admission of failure, "Hey, I know I said that we would win this one but just in case....let's practice penalties." Another reason that some managers don't practice them is because they quite rightly say that there is no way that you can replicate the pressure that the real event involves. I accept that, but similarly there is no way you can replicate the horror of an ambush but our Infantry practices anti-ambush drills on a regular basis. If you have practiced a drill you can react instinctively and perform under the pressure.

I find it incredible that some teams (although I accept the numbers are diminishing) don't plan for the event. If I was taking that dreaded walk from the half way line to the penalty spot in front of 70,000 fans and a TV audience in the millions I would like to think I would have been prepared for the situation and know what I was going to do. What would you rather be saying to yourself on that walk? "Strike it well, low to his right," or "Oh my god, what am I going to do?"

One team that will definitely have practised will be Manchester United. I know because of one of those gems of footballing folklore that does the rounds on the circuit. Prior to the famous 1999 final against Bayern Munich in the Nou Camp, United practised their penalties. Dwight Yorke stepped up and 'dinked' Schmeichel. It's the one thing goalkeepers hate, the penalty taker stabs a toe into the back of the ball and it sails above the crossbar and loops into the centre of the goal leaving the diving 'keeper stranded and looking stupid! Folklore has it that Schmeichel chased Yorke around the pitch, fortunately Dwight was bit quicker than the big Dane and consequently he managed to keep all his teeth. The staff cooled Schmeichel down and stressed to Yorke that he had to take the penalty exactly as he would on the night, get the drill right. He stepped up again and 'dinked' him a second time, shouting "that's how I'm taking it" as he ran for his life!

There are some great markets out there this week. Earlier in the season I recommended backing Chelsea to win the Champions League at [7.6]. I've since traded that and have a nice little free bet in the portfolio but I'm still looking for a bit of value. I like the Asian handicap with Chelsea at -0. [2.26] on a Chelsea win should be achievable and if the match finishes in a draw your stake is not lost. If you think the match will go to penalties you can bet both sides to win by that means in the 'method of victory' market. Backing both teams still gives a return of over [6.0]. I think that is great value.

If it goes to penalties, watch the taker's body language and demeanour as he endures that long walk. If he thinks he can or thinks he can't he probably is going to be right!