Champions League Betting: Debrecen v Liverpool

Champions League / Dave Farrar / 24 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

As ever, Liverpool's fortunes may well depend on the sort of performance that Steven Gerrad puts in tonight,

"I’m prepared to take a chance that Lyon are good enough, that La Viola may just crumble, and that Liverpool will get away with it once again."

Liverpool players and fans will inevitably have one eye on the Fiorentina v Lyon clash as they try to secure the win in Hungary they need to stay "alive" in Group E. On this occasion it may pay to take the long-term view of what will happen after Matchday 6 rather than just tonight, says Dave Farrar.

Rafa Benitez has pulled off some miracles/had several huge slices of luck (delete as appropriate) during his time at Liverpool, but his good fortune could well run out on Tuesday night.

Liverpool need Lyon to do them a favour in Florence, and even though Parma pulled off an unlikely win there at the weekend, no one seems to think that Lyon are playing well enough to do likewise. If you're betting on this game, then bear in mind what news of a 2-0 half time lead for La Viola would do to Liverpool and so proceed with caution.

Debrecen managed to stifle Liverpool at Anfield, and even though they've been involved in two ding dong games with Fiorentina, the Hungarians may set out to try and contain Liverpool once more. I certainly won't be taking the [1.69] about there being over 2.5 goals, nor am I tempted to back Liverpool to win at [1.36].

Having said that, I think that Liverpool are good enough to beat a team which has yet to gain a Champions League point, and contrary to popular opinion, which seems to be based around the performances of both Fiorentina and Lyon against Liverpool, I actually think that Liverpool are too big at [6.2] to qualify from Group E.

If Lyon hold Fiorentina, and Liverpool win here, then it will set up a great Anfield night on the final Group Stage matchday, and I'm not sure that Fiorentina will be able to cope with that. The leap of faith that you're taking when you place this bet is that Lyon will be good enough and motivated enough to play to a standard in Florence, and, given that they'll want to win the Group, I don't envisage Claude Puel putting out his B team. I'm prepared to take a chance that Lyon are good enough, that La Viola may just crumble, and that Liverpool will get away with it once again. If they do extricate themselves, then the [50.0] on offer to win the Champions League will look an awfully big price. So, I'm not going to have a bet on the Debrecen v Liverpool game, but will look for value in the bigger picture.

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