NFL Sunday Tips: Don't Duck the Steelers this week

Mike Carlson
20 December 2019

Pittsburgh look good value for a win this weekend

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T'is the week before Christmas and Mike Carlson (hopefully) has three early presents for you in the form of these bets...

"I like Pittsburgh because even with the undrafted Duck Hodges at QB this is a team that plays with emotion, and the fact that they need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and that their active defense plays tough and hard. Put together it should be enough to overcome the Jets' home field advantage and the bigger arm of Sam Darnold."

It's always bad when your best bet for the week doesn't come through, as the Titans fell short against the Texans, which makes week 17's rematch in Houston (assuming they can both win this week). BUT (and I always have a but, don't I?) they did hit the under 51, with which I had qualified my pick, however, which I hope you paid attention to. There was no really good value pick last week, as I said, but the Rams floundered in Dallas. I don't mind the miss as much as I mind how difficult this makes trying to pick the Rams this week.

In outside bet territory, however, it was a bonanza. The Eagles covered in one of the season's bad (or good, in our case) beats when Nigel Bradham returned a fumble off the desperation last play for a touchdown. But they also went over the 38.5, which I'd suggested you take, and again thanks to a late TD the Falcons helped us cover what had been my best bet at over 46 when I did the NFL Only Bettor podcast with Kieran and John on Wednesday (you do listen to that, don't you?) but as it had risen to 48.5 I suggested it as an extra outside bet. So three for three on the outside made my weekend.

I hope your weekend is made with today's picks, it's a great one starting with three fine matchups on Saturday. And once the dust has settled after Monday Night Football, I hope you all have a Merry Christmas, and that you've picked a few winners with the gifts you've given.

Not that much D when Denver host Detroit

Best Bet: Lions at Broncos over 37.5 at 10/11

I can understand why this one is low: both teams are using rookie quarterbacks, they could be playing in a winter wonderland in Denver. But I don't see the Lions' D shutting down the Broncos, and I see turnovers as possibly creating more points. Plus I am assuming Denver take an early lead and in the fourth quarter the Lions tire and allow a few cheap garbage time points. So go over.

A Steel even at 10/11

Value Bet: Pittsburgh -3 at NY Jets at 10/11

I had an evens bet earlier in the week, but it's gone down so there is no straightforward value here, unless you want to take the moneyline with a dog as an outside bet. But I like the Steelers so much here I'll call it good value at 10/11. I like them because even with the undrafted Duck Hodges at QB this is a team that plays with emotion, and the fact that they need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and that their active defense plays tough and hard. Put together it should be enough to overcome the Jets' home field advantage and the bigger arm of Sam Darnold. Plus they get to deflate ex-Steeler holdout LeVeon Bell.

Rivers can make the points flow

Outside Bet: San Diego -5.5 v Oakland at 17/20

This line has shortened which leads me to think my instinct is right on this. The Raiders played well at times against Jacksonville, but couldn't translate that into points, and I am betting Philip Rivers, in what is the season's garbage time, will put enough points on the board to stop Oakland, especially if they have to play catch-up. I also have a hankering for Seattle -9.5 vs Arizona at 10/11, because although the Cards are a better team than the one the Seahawks beat easily in week four, with Kyler Murray showing signs of becoming the next Russell Wilson, they are at home with a lot to play for, and this will be their moment. They could get caught looking ahead to the Niners next week, but as long as that spread stays below 10 I'm Ok with it.

Best Bet: Lions at Broncos over 37.5 at 10/11
Value Bet: Pittsburgh -3 at NY Jets at 10/11
Outside Bet: San Diego -5.5 v Oakland at 17/20