• Moderators won't be fact-checking

• Hurricane Helene could be problem for Vance

• Immigration and culture wars to dominate

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With Donald Trump still rejecting the opportunity to debate Kamala Harris for a second time, the Vice Presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance, which takes place at 2am in the UK, may be the last head-to-head combat of this election campaign. Here's what to expect.

Lack of moderators bodes ill

The first debate saw Trump speak 44 'non-facts' according to Washington Post analysis, compared to 11 for Harris. A record total by their measure and it came despite the ABC moderators holding Trump to account.

Following relentless criticism of that network for doing so, CBS have announced that it will be down to the candidates to fact-check each other.

Therefore, do not expect to be illuminated by the quality of discussion. Expect anarchy. If anybody is to be swayed, it is likelier to due to the force of personalities.

A chance for Vance to improve his image

One might assume that is good news for Tim Walz, whose approvals are vastly superior to J.D. Vance, with a consistent double-digit advantage. Meanwhile, the latter is the least popular VP candidate in history.

However, an alternative perspective on that is the only way is up for the Ohio Senator. This is a unique opportunity to redefine himself. A draw would be seen as a win.

Walz, whose boss flipped the odds during the Presidential Debate, has generated good headlines on the basis of his personality, has it all to lose.

Hurricane Helene unlikely to prompt unity

The ongoing natural disaster provides a grim illustration of how divided US politics has become.

I vividly remember Hurricane Sandy, in 2012, prompting a rare moment of unity across the aisle. President Obama actually hugged New Jersey's Republican Governor Chris Christie, who praised the federal response. That moment alone wrecked Christie's (once promising) hopes of being a presidential candidate. Hard-Right Conservatives and their media outlets never forgave him.

The division is way worse nowadays, and it is hard to see Vance praising, or resisting any chance to attack the Biden administration. It would be counter to everything his political career has become. But a divisive approach definitely carries risk.

Walz to highlight Project 2025

Furthermore, natural disasters are a weak area for Republicans.

Walz will doubtless remind viewers of their climate change denial and opposition to FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). Its abolition is part of the infamous Project 2025 agenda, from which Trump has been trying to distance himself.

Indeed, Walz will hammer home their anti-Project 2025 messaging and how it involves turning the federal bureaucracy into a partisan tool of the president, in pursuit of extreme Conservative policies. Among them, banning abortion and even emergency contraception; abolishing or dismantling departments such as education; cutting environmental regulations and popular programmes such as Medicare and Medicaid.

Harris frequently says "Can you believe they wrote that down?". Walz will portray it as a blueprint for a Christian nationalist dictatorship. He will point out Vance's close alliance with the authors of the document, such as Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts, for whose book he wrote a foreward.

Like Trump, Vance will doubtless deny supporting Project 2025, but the links with their campaign staff and his past alignment with exact or similar positions are undeniable.

Success for Walz would be to generate some viral confrontations over it.

Ukraine and Israel present risks to both sides

Foreign policy is bound to play a role. As explained when tipping Vance to be Trump's running mate, he is one of the most pro-Russian, anti-Ukraine voices in US politics.

Despite the risk of alienating Ukrainian and Polish-American voters in the key blue wall states, Vance continues to criticise Volodomyr Zelenskyy on a daily basis and portray US help as charity, rather than rational foreign policy.

On Israel, the Harris/Walz campaign has so far avoided the bait on being too critical, but expect Vance to continue to press the issue, in the hope it drives a wedge between either Jewish or Arab supporters of the Democrats. Where the Republican position on Ukraine is dangerous in Pennsylvania, the Democrat position on Israel puts Michigan at risk.

Anti-Harris lines are well versed

Anyone watching a Vance speech in the months since he became Trump's VP pick will know what to expect.

He will attack Kamala Harris' past positions against fracking (a big threat to her in critical Pennsylvania). He will likely claim she wants to 'defund the police', and Walz's positions on gender recognition. He will seek to reinforce the 'Tampon Tim' nickname, based on the Minnesota Governor mandating that schools provide menstrual products, in gender neutral language.

In response, Walz will claim Vance wants to monitor menstrual cycles via a national database, probably using his catchphrase "Mind your own damn business". Given how it went viral previously, don't be surprised if he labels them as 'weird'.

Above all, Walz will slam their position on abortion and claim a second Trump administration will create a national abortion ban.

In both cases, expect the candidate to deny the charges but in the absence of fact-checking, that probably won't matter. Viewers will more likely believe what they already believe to be the case.

Immigration divide bound to be a central takeaway

Above all, expect Vance to relentlessly focus on immigration from the southern border. Vance was party to Trump's lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio (where he is the Senator) and doubled down afterwards, even after condemnation from the state's Republican Governor.

Timeline from WSJ:

-Vance posts about pets being eaten
-Only then does his office ask Springfield if that is true
-City manager says rumors are "baseless"
-Trump repeats it at the debate anyway
-Vance keeps lying pic.twitter.com/B1EzZAD10m

-- Noah Lanard (@nlanard) September 18, 2024

Vance continues to push the claims that immigrants are eating pets

Collins: If someone calls your office and says they saw Bigfoot, that doesn't mean they saw Bigfoot. You have a sense of responsibility to not promote false information pic.twitter.com/RBpwAQg9Rx

-- Acyn (@Acyn) September 11, 2024

"I'm still gonna call them an illegal alien" -- JD Vance on Haitian migrants who are in Ohio legally pic.twitter.com/phe5yjiUyd

-- Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 18, 2024

JD Vance in 2021, while discussing earlier waves of immigration to the US:

"You had this massive wave of Italian, Irish and German immigration and that had its problems, its consequences. You had higher crime rates, you had these ethnic enclaves, you had inter-ethnic conflict in... pic.twitter.com/SQNPwaPBLx

-- Jacqueline Sweet (@JSweetLI) August 15, 2024

The debate over immigration gets more toxic by the day. Vance and allies have even implied that legal migrants are 'illegals', and not American.

He and Trump, (along with key Vance-backer Elon Musk) are evidently determined to bang on about immigration, pushing ever more divisive rhetoric, regardless of facts. They want the election to be fundamentally about that issue.

The dark nature of this campaign cannot be understated. Consequently, I'm almost certain this will dominate the post-debate narrative. I argued after the Trump/Harris debate that their difference was best described as 'hope versus fear'. With the polls still more or less tied, it remains far from clear which side the American people will choose.

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