US Election: What's behind the drift on Kamala Harris?

• Harris drifts on Betfair Exchange as Trump becomes favourite

• Has she lost momentum with four weeks to go in campaign?

• Betfair Predicts graphs show where race has changed

• Check out our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

Trump has narrow lead in one of closest US elections

The US election takes place four weeks from today and, with Donald Trump flipping the odds to become the favourite on the Betfair Exchange, Kamala Harris backers may be worrying that their candidate is running out of steam at the worst possible moment.

Let's not get things out of proportion. The race for the White House remains too close to call and, after Trump became the favourite and last night reached his shortest price since before his debate against Harris, the pair are back to evens with Trump holding a tiny advantage.

It would be no surprise if the two candidates were to go into election day in four weeks' time neck and neck. But after Harris appeared to be the one with the momentum, following her emphatic debate victory over Trump, this is a good moment to look at the reasons why she may have stalled while Trump has enjoyed a resurgence.

Betfair Predicts graph show election has flipped for Trump

There are seven swing states at this election and Trump has turned the tide in the most crucial one of all - Pennsylvania.

He has told supporters that if he takes the Keystone State, he will "win the whole thing" and, at the moment, the Betfair Predicts State Map indicates that he will do that.

Trump returned at the weekend to the scene of the attempted assasination against him in Butler, Pennsylvania. Elon Musk appeared with Trump, and Paul Krishnamurty has discussed whether or not that will help that ex-president's chances of winning a second term.

Paul wrote: "Musk is becoming ever more a controversial figure by the day, due to his constant stream of divisive, far-Right propaganda on X, and apparent help to Russia in Ukraine. He has a negative approvals, similar to Trump, and is increasingly inviting mockery. However he does have, like Trump, an army of (predominantly male) devoted fans. He is particularly iconic to Crypto enthusiasts."

At the moment, Musk's presence doesn't appear to have damaged Trump's chances in Pennsylvania and the Republicans are 1.9720/21 (50.8%) favourites to win there, having been the outsiders in the swing state last week. That said, the latest 538 polling average from Pennsylvania puts the Democrats ahead by a point, so perhaps there is value in the Betfair Exchange market for their backers.

Why is Pennsylvania so important? It has 19 electoral college votes, more than any other state, and both the Harris and Trump campaigns are desperate to win there.

In 2016, Trump became the rare Republican to win the state and, having lost it to Joe Biden four years ago, the ex-president is hoping he can reconnect with voters there.

Are Trump's criticisms of Harris Hurricane Helene reponse hitting home?

Trump was shameless in trying to make political capital from Hurricane Helene, which tore through the southern states of the US, wreaking damage and causing the loss of at least 200 lives. He immediately criticised the Biden administration and the Harris campaign for what he said was its weak response.

In the days after the hurricane, Trump made trips to swing states Georgia and North Carolina in a bid to woo voters there and assure them that he would lead stronger responses than the Democrats to storm damage.

Many people on the ground in those states have rebutted Trump's claims but truth has never troubled the former-president and if he thinks there are points to be scored around Hurricane Helene he will gladly take them.

Harris grilled in 60 Minutes interview that Trump ducked

Harris took part in a 60 Minutes TV interview on Monday evening in which she was grilled on the American economy, foreign policy and immgration. Democrats thought Harris came across well, while Republicans said she was cringeworthy. No surprises there then.

But at least Harris showed up. Trump was supposed to sit for a 60 Minutes interview and pulled out, giving various excuses.

Does Harris win marks for taking part? Not necessarily. She slammed Trump for his absence but he obviously thought that not appearing was better for his chances of winning the White House. Based on the Betfair Exchange US election odds today, Trump's no-show has not done him any harm.

The turning point in Harris v Trump came in the 10 September TV debate. But the more the electorate sees of Harris as she embarks on a media blitz this week, the more memories of her debate victory, when Trump flailed and look ridiculous, may fade. Visibility has its downsides.

We are not going back... unless you want to

"We are not going back" is one of the Harris campaigns slogans, as she urges voters not to return to the divisions and exhaustion of Trump's first term, from 2017-21. Accusing political opponents of living in the past can be a potent election tool.

Unless, of course, they are dismayed by the present under Biden's ailing administration, in which Harris is ostensibly the second most senior figure, and fearful of the future under the Democrats.

For all that the Biden administration play up their considerable achievements on domestic policy and the US economy, Trump is hoping that, when Americans look at wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, they may start to think the world was in a better place four years ago when he was president.

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