• Read expert analysis on the 2024 election swing states

• Paul Krishnamurty has the verdict on 10 states

• Views on Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and more

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US Presidential elections are always decided by a small number of so-called 'swing states', which hold the balance of power in the electoral college. The term is something of a misnomer, as some of them haven't swung away from one party for generations. Nevertheless they are deemed close enough to be competitive. Since the advent of Betfair in 2001, no state has been lost from odds of 1.11/10 or shorter, so this guide is limited to the ten states where the favourite is currently available at bigger odds than that.

There are a few other states not far off that mark, and some have been considered competitive in previous elections - Virginia, Texas, Iowa, Minnesota, for example. If the betting in any others moves to within our range later in the campaign, I will add them to this preview.

ARIZONA

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 11
2020 result: Democrats +0.3%
2016 result: Republicans +3.6%
2012 result: Republicans +9.1%

Running through the list, we will see just how America's electoral map has been redrawn throughout the Trump era. Some of that is due to demographic change, and some to the Republican Party's very different brand under Trump, compared to his predecessors at the top of the ticket.

Arizona demonstrates both. A rapidly growing Hispanic population led to Democrats regarding it as a potential longshot in 2016, and definitely a good long-term target. By 2020, Joe Biden became only the second Democrat to win it since 1948, faring almost 10% better than Barack Obama had eight years previously.

But the demographics only tell part of the story. Bush won Hispanics, and spoke Spanish on the campaign trail. Whereas Trump's entry into the 2016 campaign was a speech about Mexicans coming across the border, 'bringing drugs, they're rapists", and promising to get Mexico to pay for his border wall.

At the time, former GOP presidential candidate John McCain was nearing the end of 31 years as one of Arizona's two Senators. Trump hated McCain, repeatedly mocking his capture and injuries sustained as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. He still does, six years after his death. Cindy McCain, his widow, now energetically campaigns for the Democrats there. She has been critical in winning the large batch of Independent voters who make the difference in elections here.

Republicans have not won a statewide contest since the 2018 gubernatorial election. Polls projecting they would regain the Governorship and Senate seat in 2022 proved badly wrong. Their losing candidates were very much in the Trump mould and defeated Governor candidate Kari Lake is running for Senate this November. Polls have shown her trailing clearly and consistently to Ruben Gallego and the Democrat Governor, Katie Hobbs retains a positive approval rating.

FLORIDA

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 30
2020 result: Republicans +3.4%
2016 result: Republicans +1.2%
2012 result: Democrats +0.9%

Florida is the opposite of Arizona. Until very recently, the 'Sunshine State' was seen as the ultimate bellwether, backing every presidential election winner since 1992. However it has moved considerably to the Right during the Trump era, and very much bucked the trend in 2020. Arguably it isn't even a competitive state anymore, considering Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election in 2022 by almost a 20% margin - on a platform even further to the right of Trump.

Democrats do at least publicly retain hopes, though, and there is one factor that could help their cause this cycle. The general election ballot will also include a referendum on enshrining abortion rights, which is widely expected to pass by a huge margin. In theory that could boost turnout more on the liberal side and drag some voters away from Trump and the Republicans.

Widespread ticket-splitting on that issue, however, is likelier. There is also a Senate race, for which former Governor Rick Scott (a close Trump ally), is a very strong favourite. One potential issue moving forward is that more than 500,000 people of Haitian descent are eligible to vote, and could be even better motivated to oppose Trump in light of his pet-eating smears about their community in Ohio.

GEORGIA

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 16

2020 result: Democrats +0.2%
2016 result: Republicans +5.1%
2012 result: Republicans +7.8%

Georgia was a stunning gain for Biden in 2020, albeit by a tiny margin. This is a state where Harris is campaigning hard, with very good reason. Without these 16 electoral college votes, Trump's path to victory becomes extremely narrow.

Again, demographics have helped the Democrats here in recent years, with the liberal Atlanta suburbs turning away from Trumpism and MAGA candidates in Senate races. One third of voters here are black.

The Democrats have both Senators and have won the last three Senate elections, all in run-offs because no candidate reached 50% in the first round. However there were mitigating factors behind Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock's victories. In 2020, both won a few weeks after Biden's victory, likely benefiting from slightly differential turnout and negativity around both Republican opponents.

That was even more the case with Warnock's victory over Herschel Walker in 2022 - perhaps the worst candidate ever to represent a major party in a Senate race. An eight-point victory for Governor Brian Kemp in his re-election bid, over a black female opponent and Democrat star in Stacey Abrams, suggested the state does still at least slightly lean red.

However Trump may again run into local problems. He has a longstanding feud with Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, over their acceptance of the 2020 election result. The latter famously refused Trump's phone call request to 'find 11,780 votes'. He too was comfortably re-elected in 2022.

Former Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan is publicly opposing and campaigning for Trump. And, lest we forget, Trump and more than a dozen co-conspirators are indicted and facing trial in Fulton County for election interference, including a 'fake electors' scheme.

MAINE

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 4

2020 result: Democrats +9.1%
2016 result: Democrats +3.0%
2012 result: Democrats +15.3%

Maine awards its four electoral college votes slightly differently. There are two congressional districts, which are awarded one each, with the other two going to the statewide winner. In 2020, Trump won the second congressional district, but lost the statewide vote, so gained one ECV compared to three for Biden.

Statewide, it hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the 1980s, but at other levels the state is split. Maine voted for a populist, perhaps Trumpian Governor, Paul LePage, in 2010 and 2014 but Janet Mills won the last two races for the Democrats by big margins. The two current Senators are left-leaning Independent Angus King and Republican Susan Collins, but she is very much on the moderate, Trump-critical wing of the party.

That electoral history doesn't really fit the'swing state' definition but the odds fall just within our defined range, with the Democrats trading at 1.111/9. The likeliest explanation is that Maine is the whitest state in the union, leading some to believe Trump's chance will improve against a black candidate, but that doesn't fit the ideological trend of the North-East.

MICHIGAN

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 15

2020 result: Democrats +2.8%
2016 result: Republicans +0.2%
2012 result: Democrats +9.5%

There is no greater example of Trump redrawing the electoral map than Michigan. He is the only Republican to win a presidential election here since the 1980s, in 2016. No Senator has won this generally blue state this century, and only has since the 1970s. They have had some Governors during that period, but that more reflects how gubernatorial races are less partisan.

Evidently, Trump's MAGA messaging cut through better than the standard Republican fayre, in a state which was terribly hit by deindustrialisation. However he only won 47.5% of the vote in 2016, which in any normal year would not be enough. What worked in his favour that year was the stronger than usual performance of third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, who took nearly 5% combined.

That seems to be his best hope again. Stein, Cornel West and Robert F Kennedy Jr. will all be on the ballot. The last-named is now supporting Trump and tried to remove himself, but failed in the courts. It is assumed his presence hurts Trump, while the other two will take votes from Harris. Stein and West are particularly aiming to appeal to Arab American voters who normally vote Democrat, but are protesting about US support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.

Michigan is a must-win for any Democrat candidate. Of the three 'Blue Wall' states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - this is slightly the easiest on paper. Democrat Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a prominent campaigner for Harris, won re-election by over 10% in 2022 after years of conflict with MAGA activists. However the third-party threat remains a genuine threat.

NEVADA

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 6

2020 result: Democrats +2.4%
2016 result: Democrats +2.4%
2012 result: Democrats +6.7%

Only George W Bush has won Nevada for the Republicans since the 1980s, and none of the other races were particularly close. While Trump's name adorns the skyline in Las Vegas on his hotel, this was the only swing state where Hillary Clinton fared as well in defeat as Joe Biden did in victory.

Democrats also have both Senators at the moment, with Jacky Rosen well ahead in polls for her re-election bid. However the Republicans did regain the Governorship in 2022, with Joe Lombardo defeating incumbent Steve Sisolak.

Only 62% of the population here are white, with the non-white share voting heavily Democratic. That Harris has begun making advances among the sizeable Hispanic vote, which had slipped under Biden, may tip the state back towards the Democrats. The Culinary Workers Union, largely representing low-paid workers in Las Vegas, have been critical in organising get out the vote campaigns in recent cycles.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 4

2020 result: Democrats +7.4%
2016 result: Democrats +0.4%
2012 result: Democrats +5.6%

In theory, New Hampshire is a purple state. It was generally Republican until the 1990s, has a Republican Governor, and Trump came within 0.4% of victory against Clinton. However the broader picture suggests it is far from suitable for his brand of politics.

Voters here are regarded as moderate, with a high share of Independents and only 35% registered as Republicans. Trump did fare better than most in 2016, but was helped by the strong third-party showing that year which particularly damaged Clinton, and he was thumped by Biden in 2020.

Furthermore, a Senate candidate in his mould, Don Bolduc, lost by 9% in 2022 to Maggie Hassan, despite polls showing him highly competitive. In this year's GOP primary, Nikki Haley took over 43% of the vote against Trump. And even the Governor, Chris Sununu, is a frequent critic and very much from the moderate wing of the party.

NORTH CAROLINA

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 16

2020 result: Republicans +1.3%
2016 result: Republicans +3.7%
2012 result: Republicans +2.0%

A few months ago, when Biden was the candidate, few considered North Carolina to be competitive. Now it is one of the most keenly watched, with Harris campaigning hard, generating crowds at her rallies and leading some polls.

The only Democrat to have won here since the 1970s was Obama in his first election, by a razor-thin 0.3% margin, when winning the national popular vote by 7.2%. It definitely leans red, as Trump's win despite nationwide defeat in 2020 demonstrates, but there are signs it is becoming at least purple.

Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, a close friend of Kamala Harris, won a second term on the same day Trump won in 2020. One of the current Republican Senators, Thom Tillis, has been highly critical of Trump in recent days.

Over 20% of the North Carolina population is black and the Hispanic share is rising fast too. This is a state which Trump almost certainly cannot win without, that he cannot take for granted, as might well have been the case until very recently. He has received one boost, in that RFK Jr. successfully sued to remove his name from ballot papers.

PENNSYLVANIA

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 19

2020 result: Democrats +1.2%
2016 result: Republicans +0.6%
2012 result: Democrats +5.4%

The big one. If Florida used to be the singular, key state, that title now belongs to Pennsylvania. These 19 ECVs are absolutely critical to both candidates. Without it, Harris would need to compensate by winning a state with a less Democratic pedigree, such as North Carolina or Georgia. Likewise Trump's pathway is extremely narrow. Realistically, he could afford to lose only one of Wisconsin and Michigan, while sweeping all the rest on this list besides Maine and New Hampshire (where holding only a small, outside chance).

The recent history of the state shows how hard Trump's task is. He is the only Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s, and only did so in 2016 by a tiny 0.7% margin. He won a smaller share in victory than George W Bush did in defeat in 2004, thanks to the strong performance of third parties.

It is true that Trump has a particularly strong appeal in rural Pennsylvania, and one reason put forward for his VP pick is that J.D. Vance hails from Appalachia.

However, other recent elections don't bode so well for his brand of Republicanism. Josh Shapiro beat the Trump-endorsed Doug Mastriano for the Governorship by almost 15%. His predecessor, Tom Wolf, was similarly dominant. Both Senators are Democrats. In this year's Senate race, Bob Casey is consistently well ahead of the Republican. The last Republican Senator here, Pat Toomey, refuses to endorse Trump over his election denial and activities on January 6th, 2021.

Trump is making much noise about anti-fracking comments by Harris earlier in her career. It was notable in their TV debate that she challenged that issue head on, repeatedly stressing the Biden administration's record, but it remains a potential weakness. On the other hand, she is spending a lot more money in this key state, and generating much more enthusiasm in Philadelphia and its suburbs than the only losing Democrat candidate, Hillary Clinton, did.

WISCONSIN

Latest odds:
Latest polls:

Electoral College Votes: 10

2020 result: Democrats +0.6%
2016 result: Republicans +0.8%
2012 result: Democrats +7.0%

Finally, another key plank of Trump's shock victory in 2016, when he became the only Republican to win in Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan. Even Michael Dukakis won for the Democrats in 1988, despite a nationwide defeat by nearly 8%. Clinton infamously failed to visit the state during the closing stretch, taking victory for granted.

No doubt, this state is more open to Trumpism than the old-school form of Republicanism. It is 84% white and mostly consists of rural counties - his base. Despite losing in 2020, he massively outperformed the polls, so Harris should not take her consistent early lead for granted by any means. To that point, her running mate Tim Walz, the Governor of neighbouring Minnesota, looks an excellent fit.

Arguably, Wisconsin deserves the 'purple state' label more than any other. Even as US politics has become more polarised than ever, they continue to elect Senators from different parties. Ron Johnson since 2010 for Republicans and Tammy Baldwin for Democrats since 2012. The latter is up for re-election in November and leading Eric Hovde consistently, by clear margins.

Baldwin's figures and national polls do bode well for Harris, and this is one of the swing states generally forecasted to stay blue. RFK Jr's bid to remove his name off the ballot has failed, and that is expected to hurt Trump if anybody. Nevertheless it remains a place where Trump has a particular appeal and potential, and one which could flip the election his way.

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