US Election: Seven swing states that will decide if Harris or Trump wins

• Seven states could swing election for Harris or Trump

• Find out where they are and who is winning there

• Look out for in-depth analysis of the swing states

• Follow our 2024 US Election live blog

• See US election odds as you've never seen them before

The fate of America, and arguably that of the world, is likely to come down to the way that seven states vote at the US election on 5 November.

It may sound strange, in a country where there are 50 states, but demographics and the American electoral college ensures that, while all votes count, some count more than others in some places.

Remember when Florida was the focus in 2000? Or those late nights waiting for Ohio to come in? That's what we are talking about, the states that will reveal all about the national picture, although as you will see below neither Florida or Ohio are in the seven swing states this time.

You can check on who is winning in any of the seven swings states at any time by looking at the Betfair Predicts US election states map.

Here is a short guide to the seven swings states at the 2024 US election. Look out for more in-depth focus on each between now and election day.

Arizona - Six electoral college votes

Arizona is in the balance in 2024. Joe Biden won the Grand Canyon state four years ago - a clear sign that he was on his way to the White House - but that was only time in the last six elections that the Democrats managed to take it.

The Republicans are keen to take back Arizona in 2024 and have made the state, which borders Mexico, the focal point of their immigration claims. However, while the Republicans are odds-on at the time of writing, the Democrats will not give up on Arizona and remain in with a shout.

Georgia - 16 electoral college votes

Another red state that turned blue in 2020, here for the first time since 1992. It has been said by prominent Republicans that if they cannot win back Georgia in 2024 they will not win the election. The Betfair Exchange market indicates that, even as Trump currently trails Harris in the election outright betting, his party can reclaim Georgia.

However, all is not peachy for Trump in southern state where he is accused of trying to overturn the result four years ago. Georgia has a significant Black population and the Harris campaign is trying to connect with them and rebuild bridges after disappointment with Biden's presidency.

Michigan - 15 electoral college votes

Michigan picked Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 so it has form where backing the winner is concerned. The Democrats are in pole position here, according to the Betfair Exchange market on the Great Lakes state, but they will keep campaigning their until election day.

There are reports of a split among some Democrat voters here with Arab-Americans potentially put off by Biden's foreign policy in the Middle East. Whether this would be enough to allow the Republicans to take Michigan remains to be seen but some of the most contentious questions in the world could come into focus in Michigan before 5 November.

Nevada - Six electoral college votes

The Democrats are odds-on but only just and Nevadans will know well that you don't take a gamble like that for granted. The Silver State has voted blue since Barack Obama first ran in 2008 but there are rumblings of a Republican comeback and the Betfair Exchange market supports that.

Trump was beating Biden here in the polls but that flipped once Harris became the candidate. She and Trump are both pitching Nevada's signficiant Latino popultion.

North Carolina - 16 electoral college votes

Another state where Democrats were in trouble with Biden as the candidate but have since recovered thanks to Harris taking over. The Republicans have a fairly comfortable lead in the Betfair Exchange market on the state but is that more due to it voting red at the last three US elections than the reality on the ground?

Trump only carried it by 70,000 votes four years ago and Democrats regarded as a purple state - one that could go either way.

Pennsylvania - 19 electoral college votes

Famous for its important place in American revolutionary history, Pennsylvania is seen by some commentators as the most important state in the 2024 US election. Our political betting expert Paul Krishnamurty has said that if Harris does not win here she will not win the election.

With just under two months to go before Americans go to the polls, the Democrats are the favourites here. But before the debate in Philadelphia Trump had edged ahead in the state that he won unexpectedly in 2016 before losing to Biden last time out. You are going to be hearing a lot about the aptly-nicknamed Keystone State in the run up to voting.

Wisconsin - 10 electoral college votes

Wisconsin is a key industrial midwestern state that both candidates are vying to win. Harris's decision to pick Tim Walz, the senator from neighbouring Minnesota, as her running-mate may have been in part influenced by the belief that he can connect with the electorate here.

The Democrats are the favourites to win the Badger State but this is another that changed its political stripes at the last two elections, picking the winner on both occasions, and by as little as 20,000 votes. Watch Wisconsin in 2024.

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