US Election Bet of the Day: 340 is a perfectly realistic electoral college target for Biden

Former Vice President Joe Biden
Biden's polls look better by the day

Paul Krishnamurty says the polling signals are getting even better for Biden and that his chances are badly underestimated across the board...

"There is nothing to justify Trump's forward momentum in the market since last night, or indeed his position over recent weeks and months."

Back Biden to win the -140.5 Handicap @ 2.8415/8

Apologies for the repetition but, tasked with finding a different bet for the last 20 days of a campaign, it was inevitable. Especially when with each passing hour, more evidence emerges to vindicate your strategy, yet the odds move against your selection.

Nothing has happened to justify Trump's forward momentum in the market since last night, or indeed his position over recent weeks and months. Here's how that infamous fence-sitter Nate Silver sees it.

The polls haven't moved for Trump since the debate. Quite the reverse. As discussed in our live blog, yesterday's numbers were utterly grim for Trump.

When quoting the likes of Silver or Dave Wasserman, a frequent response is that the polls are fake and they are merely tools of the 'MSM' who are biased against Republicans. I have no idea what either man's politics are. I do know neither was overly bullish about Clinton four years ago.

District polling points to blowout Biden win

The reality is Wasserman specialises in district-level polling and those numbers make alarming reading for Trump. As with national polls, the very clear, consistent indication is that Biden will win a landslide. The only question is the margin.

During this series, I've already put up Biden to win the -63.5 Handicap at 1.910/11 and the -100.5 line at 2.186/5. Next I'm going for the top band. To beat this target, Biden needs to win 340 electoral college votes.

Biden's path to 340

How does he get there? Hold states won by Clinton, then win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nebraska-2. All look highly likely. He's now past the winning line on 290, needing another 50 for this target.

Florida (29 ECVs) plus North Carolina (15) complete Biden's top-six ranked targets and amount to 44. Add Iowa (6) and he's there. Or Georgia (15), Ohio (18), Texas (38).

It is quite possible that either Georgia or Texas defies these rankings, due to a huge rise in turnout. The early voting numbers suggests that outcome is in play. If so, more permutations open up for our bet.

In truth, the way things are looking right now I could easily recommend a bet on Biden in these states. I suspect he's overpriced for all. However this handicap option makes much more sense, because multiple paths allow for Biden to fail in a target or two.

Every daily election tip in one place

Today's bet is the 14th in the series. If you missed any or want to check back, I've collated all of them in a Twitter thread, to which each new bet will be added daily. See below.


Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

2020 US Presidential Election: USA - Presidential Election 2020 (Electoral College Vote H'cap - 140.5)

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Tuesday 3 November, 10.00am

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Donald Trump +140.5
Joe Biden -140.5
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