US Election Bet of the Day: Biden still good value for handicap targets

Former Vice President Joe Biden
Is Joe Biden on course for a landslide?

Despite Biden shortening for the presidency, Paul Krishnamurty says polls imply there's still plenty of value about him to beat handicap targets...

"Those of us that trust their authenticity should be backing a Biden landslide, because that is clearly what they indicate."

Back Joe Biden to win the -100.5 Handicap @ 2.26/5

The odds for Next President have moved back in Joe Biden's direction this week but are still considerably more generous than poll forecasters imply should be the case. Odds of 1.51/2 imply a 67% chance. Fivethirtyeight say 87% and their estimate is on the conservative end of the range.

Polls imply Biden will pass 320

We are effectively betting on the worth of such estimates. Those who believe polls are wrong, or even manipulated to favour the Democrats are entitled to back Trump. Hence one reason why the president is rated much likelier by the betting.

Those of us that trust their authenticity should be backing a Biden landslide, because that is clearly what they indicate and the odds considerably understate their estimates. Take this handicap option.

To clarify, this handicap applies to the winning margin in the electoral college. If Biden wins 320 electoral college votes (ECVs), Trump will get 218 and lose by a margin of 102.

So, how do we get Biden to 320? Hillary Clinton's tally was 232 and he leads big in all the states she won. Repeat them and Biden will need 88 more ECVs.

Multiple paths to this target

Earlier this week, I put up Michigan and Wisconsin as Biden bankers. They provide 26 ECVs. Pennsylvania (20) is not far behind and I'll add Nebraska's second district (1). Win that quartet and our handicap requires another 41.

The next batch of Biden targets are Florida (29), Arizona (11), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16). I've listed them in order of Fivethirtyeight rankings, but there isn't much to choose between them in polls. The results will likely correlate.

In this path, Florida plus one could get to 320. If losing Florida, winning the other three will do it. We could also throw Iowa (6) and Maine-CD2 (1) into calculations. Biden's lowest estimate for any of these targets is 50%.

In short, we have multiple paths to 320 and the chances are, if he performs to polling expectations, he'll take the lot and pass the handicap mark with ease.


Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

2020 US Presidential Election: USA - Presidential Election 2020 (Electoral College Vote H'cap - 100.5)

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Tuesday 3 November, 10.00am

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