For today's recommended bet from Betfair's 2020 Election odds, Paul Krishnamurty is targeting the electoral college handicaps. Read on for an explanation and his pick among six targets...
"Where might he find the required 11 ECVs? According to the betting, North Carolina will do it. That state provides 15 ECVs, so would take him to 305. Or Florida's 29 ECVs would get it done."
Back Joe Biden to win the -63.5 Handicap @ 1.910/11
Among Betfair's wide array of side markets, there are six handicap lines. They refer to the margin of victory in the electoral college. First a brief explainer.
How electoral college handicaps work
States award a set number of votes (ECVs) to their winner, which count towards the electoral college. There are 538 ECVs in total so to win a majority and the presidency requires 270.
In these handicap markets, Biden has to concede a start. So to win the -48.5 handicap, he must win by more than 48 ECVs. That equates to 294, versus 244.
Pick of the six on current odds is the -63.5 line at 1.910/11. In this case, Biden needs win 301 ECVs, compared to 237 for Trump. He has multiple paths to achieving this target.
Clinton's haul was 232. If Biden gains Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nebraska-2, while holding all the states she won, he'll be up to 290. He is a strong favourite, and clear poll leader, in all of these states.
North Carolina and/or Florida are the keys
So where might he find the required 11 ECVs? According to the betting, North Carolina - where the Democrats are odds-on to win - will do it. That state provides 15 ECVs, so would take him to 305. Or Florida's 29 ECVs would get it done. Or 16 from Georgia or 18 from Ohio. Even six from Iowa.
More likely is it will come down to North Carolina and/or Florida. In the former, Biden's average poll lead is 3.3% and he's scored higher with A+ rated polls during October. In the latter, he's 3.8% ahead on average, up to 11% with B+ rated Quinnipiac.
Both do still warrant the 'toss-up' label, but the numbers clearly favour Biden. This bet doesn't amount to a 1.910/11 chance. It should be shorter and I expect it to win.